A recent Victory Insights poll of likely Republican voters in Florida's 9th Congressional District shows the four leading candidates—Jorge Martinez, Thomas Chalifoux, Ben Butler, and Dan Green—statistically tied within the margin of error, with over 40% of respondents still undecided just days before the August 18 primary. The race tightened after new district lines drawn earlier in 2026 shifted the seat into Republican-leaning territory, drawing a crowded field of seven candidates seeking the nomination to challenge Democratic incumbent Darren Soto. Fundraising, local name recognition from prior campaigns or county roles, and issue positioning on costs, veterans' concerns, and education have kept the top contenders closely matched without a dominant frontrunner emerging. Late endorsements, turnout among key voting blocs, or final-week candidate events could still shift support and produce a clearer winner before ballots are cast.