A recent poll shows the top four Republican candidates for Florida’s 9th Congressional District—Jorge Martinez, Thomas Chalifoux, Ben Butler, and Dan Green—statistically tied within the margin of error ahead of the August 18 primary. Redistricting by state Republicans shifted the seat into GOP-leaning territory, drawing a crowded seven-candidate field to challenge incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. Limited name recognition, modest fundraising differences among frontrunners, and the absence of a major debate or late endorsement have kept the race fragmented. Higher turnout among specific voting blocs or last-minute campaign events could consolidate support and create separation before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJorge Martinez 31.6%
Thomas Chalifoux 26%
Ben Butler 22.1%
Dan Green 16%
$88,167 Vol.
$88,167 Vol.

Jorge Martinez
32%

Thomas Chalifoux
26%

Ben Butler
22%

Dan Green
16%

Justin Story
1%

Jorge Malavet
<1%

Marcus Carter
<1%

Steve Rance
<1%

Howard Steven Rance
<1%
Jorge Martinez 31.6%
Thomas Chalifoux 26%
Ben Butler 22.1%
Dan Green 16%
$88,167 Vol.
$88,167 Vol.

Jorge Martinez
32%

Thomas Chalifoux
26%

Ben Butler
22%

Dan Green
16%

Justin Story
1%

Jorge Malavet
<1%

Marcus Carter
<1%

Steve Rance
<1%

Howard Steven Rance
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A recent poll shows the top four Republican candidates for Florida’s 9th Congressional District—Jorge Martinez, Thomas Chalifoux, Ben Butler, and Dan Green—statistically tied within the margin of error ahead of the August 18 primary. Redistricting by state Republicans shifted the seat into GOP-leaning territory, drawing a crowded seven-candidate field to challenge incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. Limited name recognition, modest fundraising differences among frontrunners, and the absence of a major debate or late endorsement have kept the race fragmented. Higher turnout among specific voting blocs or last-minute campaign events could consolidate support and create separation before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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