Austin Rogers leads the FL-02 Republican primary market at 72% implied probability, driven by recent polling showing him ahead in the Panhandle district and his profile as a Panama City native and former general counsel to Senator Rick Scott. A mid-August survey placed Rogers at 25% with notable support among likely voters, ahead of Evan Power, Keith Gross, and others, amid high undecided shares. His emphasis on border security, America First priorities, and local roots has consolidated backing in a race to replace retiring incumbent Neal Dunn. Gross has raised substantial funds but trails in surveys, while lower-probability candidates like Jim Norton and Luke Murphy show minimal traction. The August 18 primary timing leaves limited room for late shifts before resolution.