Ongoing US and allied military operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and communications infrastructure in the Persian Gulf have heightened scrutiny of several Iranian-held islands amid the broader 2025-2026 conflict over Strait of Hormuz access. Recent incidents include reported US riverine craft activity near Farsi Island waters in early August 2026, alongside strikes on nearby sites such as Greater Tunb and Qeshm. Iranian forces continue to assert operational control and enforce transit restrictions, with no verified reports of territorial loss at Farsi. Trader sentiment reflects these dynamics through low implied probabilities for near-term resolution dates, influenced by the pace of escalation, potential ceasefire talks, and the limited scope of confirmed ground or amphibious actions against the island itself. Structural barriers to rapid change in control remain significant absent major new developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$168,061 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$168,061 Vol.
August 31
$159,168 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US and allied military operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and communications infrastructure in the Persian Gulf have heightened scrutiny of several Iranian-held islands amid the broader 2025-2026 conflict over Strait of Hormuz access. Recent incidents include reported US riverine craft activity near Farsi Island waters in early August 2026, alongside strikes on nearby sites such as Greater Tunb and Qeshm. Iranian forces continue to assert operational control and enforce transit restrictions, with no verified reports of territorial loss at Farsi. Trader sentiment reflects these dynamics through low implied probabilities for near-term resolution dates, influenced by the pace of escalation, potential ceasefire talks, and the limited scope of confirmed ground or amphibious actions against the island itself. Structural barriers to rapid change in control remain significant absent major new developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volume
$168,061End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US and allied military operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and communications infrastructure in the Persian Gulf have heightened scrutiny of several Iranian-held islands amid the broader 2025-2026 conflict over Strait of Hormuz access. Recent incidents include reported US riverine craft activity near Farsi Island waters in early August 2026, alongside strikes on nearby sites such as Greater Tunb and Qeshm. Iranian forces continue to assert operational control and enforce transit restrictions, with no verified reports of territorial loss at Farsi. Trader sentiment reflects these dynamics through low implied probabilities for near-term resolution dates, influenced by the pace of escalation, potential ceasefire talks, and the limited scope of confirmed ground or amphibious actions against the island itself. Structural barriers to rapid change in control remain significant absent major new developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$168,061End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US and allied military operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and communications infrastructure in the Persian Gulf have heightened scrutiny of several Iranian-held islands amid the broader 2025-2026 conflict over Strait of Hormuz access. Recent incidents include reported US riverine craft activity near Farsi Island waters in early August 2026, alongside strikes on nearby sites such as Greater Tunb and Qeshm. Iranian forces continue to assert operational control and enforce transit restrictions, with no verified reports of territorial loss at Farsi. Trader sentiment reflects these dynamics through low implied probabilities for near-term resolution dates, influenced by the pace of escalation, potential ceasefire talks, and the limited scope of confirmed ground or amphibious actions against the island itself. Structural barriers to rapid change in control remain significant absent major new developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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