Escalating US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supplies transit, has elevated trader focus on these Persian Gulf islands, particularly Kharg, which processes 80-90% of Iranian crude exports. Multiple US airstrikes on Kharg military targets since March 2026, combined with naval blockades and explicit threats by President Trump to seize the island and other oil infrastructure, have driven market-implied odds, though no ground occupation has occurred. Oil price volatility reflects these tensions, with any loss of Iranian control likely to disrupt exports and elevate benchmark crude levels. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing FOMC-influenced risk sentiment, potential diplomatic resolutions, and further military actions ahead of the market's resolution horizon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$91,137 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
4%
$91,137 Vol.
August 31
$23,390 Vol.
1%
September 30
$67,747 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supplies transit, has elevated trader focus on these Persian Gulf islands, particularly Kharg, which processes 80-90% of Iranian crude exports. Multiple US airstrikes on Kharg military targets since March 2026, combined with naval blockades and explicit threats by President Trump to seize the island and other oil infrastructure, have driven market-implied odds, though no ground occupation has occurred. Oil price volatility reflects these tensions, with any loss of Iranian control likely to disrupt exports and elevate benchmark crude levels. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing FOMC-influenced risk sentiment, potential diplomatic resolutions, and further military actions ahead of the market's resolution horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$91,137End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supplies transit, has elevated trader focus on these Persian Gulf islands, particularly Kharg, which processes 80-90% of Iranian crude exports. Multiple US airstrikes on Kharg military targets since March 2026, combined with naval blockades and explicit threats by President Trump to seize the island and other oil infrastructure, have driven market-implied odds, though no ground occupation has occurred. Oil price volatility reflects these tensions, with any loss of Iranian control likely to disrupt exports and elevate benchmark crude levels. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing FOMC-influenced risk sentiment, potential diplomatic resolutions, and further military actions ahead of the market's resolution horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$91,137End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supplies transit, has elevated trader focus on these Persian Gulf islands, particularly Kharg, which processes 80-90% of Iranian crude exports. Multiple US airstrikes on Kharg military targets since March 2026, combined with naval blockades and explicit threats by President Trump to seize the island and other oil infrastructure, have driven market-implied odds, though no ground occupation has occurred. Oil price volatility reflects these tensions, with any loss of Iranian control likely to disrupt exports and elevate benchmark crude levels. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing FOMC-influenced risk sentiment, potential diplomatic resolutions, and further military actions ahead of the market's resolution horizon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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