Iran's efforts to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz through direct IRGC strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels, alongside Houthi proxy attacks in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, form the core driver of trader sentiment on this market. Following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding and subsequent impasse in U.S.-Iran talks, renewed maritime incidents in late July and early August—including strikes killing crew members on cargo vessels—have sustained pressure on shipping lanes, with Iranian officials conditioning any reopening on specific routing and fee demands. These actions occur amid a broader 2026 conflict involving U.S. and Israeli responses, where trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether further verified targeting will occur before resolution deadlines or de-escalation via Oman-mediated talks. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and any new naval movements in the Gulf could shift probabilities in the near term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$108,950 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
August 11
<1%
August 12
1%
August 13
34%
August 14
33%
August 15
9%
August 16
11%
August 17
14%
August 18
8%
August 19
9%
August 20
12%
August 21
9%
August 22
10%
August 23
12%
August 24
12%
August 25
12%
August 26
8%
August 27
8%
August 28
10%
August 29
8%
August 30
12%
August 31
11%
$108,950 Vol.
August 11
$1,269 Vol.
<1%
August 12
$819 Vol.
1%
August 13
$5,025 Vol.
34%
August 14
$4,345 Vol.
33%
August 15
$4,522 Vol.
9%
August 16
$1,611 Vol.
11%
August 17
$193 Vol.
14%
August 18
$238 Vol.
8%
August 19
$3,000 Vol.
9%
August 20
$138 Vol.
12%
August 21
$889 Vol.
9%
August 22
$230 Vol.
10%
August 23
$2,265 Vol.
12%
August 24
$6,175 Vol.
12%
August 25
$51 Vol.
12%
August 26
$509 Vol.
8%
August 27
$186 Vol.
8%
August 28
$338 Vol.
10%
August 29
$871 Vol.
8%
August 30
$190 Vol.
12%
August 31
$563 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz through direct IRGC strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels, alongside Houthi proxy attacks in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, form the core driver of trader sentiment on this market. Following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding and subsequent impasse in U.S.-Iran talks, renewed maritime incidents in late July and early August—including strikes killing crew members on cargo vessels—have sustained pressure on shipping lanes, with Iranian officials conditioning any reopening on specific routing and fee demands. These actions occur amid a broader 2026 conflict involving U.S. and Israeli responses, where trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether further verified targeting will occur before resolution deadlines or de-escalation via Oman-mediated talks. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and any new naval movements in the Gulf could shift probabilities in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$108,950End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz through direct IRGC strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels, alongside Houthi proxy attacks in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, form the core driver of trader sentiment on this market. Following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding and subsequent impasse in U.S.-Iran talks, renewed maritime incidents in late July and early August—including strikes killing crew members on cargo vessels—have sustained pressure on shipping lanes, with Iranian officials conditioning any reopening on specific routing and fee demands. These actions occur amid a broader 2026 conflict involving U.S. and Israeli responses, where trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether further verified targeting will occur before resolution deadlines or de-escalation via Oman-mediated talks. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and any new naval movements in the Gulf could shift probabilities in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$108,950End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's efforts to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz through direct IRGC strikes on non-compliant commercial vessels, alongside Houthi proxy attacks in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, form the core driver of trader sentiment on this market. Following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding and subsequent impasse in U.S.-Iran talks, renewed maritime incidents in late July and early August—including strikes killing crew members on cargo vessels—have sustained pressure on shipping lanes, with Iranian officials conditioning any reopening on specific routing and fee demands. These actions occur amid a broader 2026 conflict involving U.S. and Israeli responses, where trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether further verified targeting will occur before resolution deadlines or de-escalation via Oman-mediated talks. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and any new naval movements in the Gulf could shift probabilities in the near term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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