Databricks' decision to remain private, underscored by CEO Ali Ghodsi's July 2026 Bloomberg comments labeling the year a "terrible" IPO window amid competing listings from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, anchors the 63% market-implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027. Recent Series L-2 private funding at a $190 billion valuation in August 2026, following the $134 billion Series L round, demonstrates access to ample capital without public markets, reinforcing trader consensus around delayed timing. Strong revenue momentum—with annual run rates exceeding $4 billion and AI products surpassing $1 billion—supports elevated private valuations but has not yet translated into S-1 filings or confirmed listing plans, leaving lower-probability market-cap brackets clustered near 30-33.5% amid ongoing uncertainty over 2027-2028 conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$250B-$300B 68%
<$150B 67%
$150B-$200B 67%
$200B-$250B 67%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<$150B
67%
$150B-$200B
67%
$200B-$250B
67%
$250B-$300B
68%
$300B-$350B
66%
$350B-$400B
67%
$400B-$450B
67%
$450B+
64%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
64%
$250B-$300B 68%
<$150B 67%
$150B-$200B 67%
$200B-$250B 67%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<$150B
$0 Vol.
67%
$150B-$200B
$0 Vol.
67%
$200B-$250B
$18 Vol.
67%
$250B-$300B
$18 Vol.
68%
$300B-$350B
$18 Vol.
66%
$350B-$400B
$18 Vol.
67%
$400B-$450B
$0 Vol.
67%
$450B+
$0 Vol.
64%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$172 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Databricks' decision to remain private, underscored by CEO Ali Ghodsi's July 2026 Bloomberg comments labeling the year a "terrible" IPO window amid competing listings from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, anchors the 63% market-implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027. Recent Series L-2 private funding at a $190 billion valuation in August 2026, following the $134 billion Series L round, demonstrates access to ample capital without public markets, reinforcing trader consensus around delayed timing. Strong revenue momentum—with annual run rates exceeding $4 billion and AI products surpassing $1 billion—supports elevated private valuations but has not yet translated into S-1 filings or confirmed listing plans, leaving lower-probability market-cap brackets clustered near 30-33.5% amid ongoing uncertainty over 2027-2028 conditions.
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ET
Volume
$244End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Databricks' decision to remain private, underscored by CEO Ali Ghodsi's July 2026 Bloomberg comments labeling the year a "terrible" IPO window amid competing listings from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, anchors the 63% market-implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027. Recent Series L-2 private funding at a $190 billion valuation in August 2026, following the $134 billion Series L round, demonstrates access to ample capital without public markets, reinforcing trader consensus around delayed timing. Strong revenue momentum—with annual run rates exceeding $4 billion and AI products surpassing $1 billion—supports elevated private valuations but has not yet translated into S-1 filings or confirmed listing plans, leaving lower-probability market-cap brackets clustered near 30-33.5% amid ongoing uncertainty over 2027-2028 conditions.
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$244End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Databricks' decision to remain private, underscored by CEO Ali Ghodsi's July 2026 Bloomberg comments labeling the year a "terrible" IPO window amid competing listings from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, anchors the 63% market-implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027. Recent Series L-2 private funding at a $190 billion valuation in August 2026, following the $134 billion Series L round, demonstrates access to ample capital without public markets, reinforcing trader consensus around delayed timing. Strong revenue momentum—with annual run rates exceeding $4 billion and AI products surpassing $1 billion—supports elevated private valuations but has not yet translated into S-1 filings or confirmed listing plans, leaving lower-probability market-cap brackets clustered near 30-33.5% amid ongoing uncertainty over 2027-2028 conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions