Tarsier Pharma's delayed IPO, initially filed with terms for a $45-50 million raise and ~$294 million midpoint market cap on NYSE American in mid-2026, has seen no closure amid a challenging biotech equity window. Weak investor appetite for clinical-stage ophthalmology assets, combined with the company's pre-revenue status, Phase 3 trial timelines, and modest offering size, has pushed trader consensus to 98.6% probability of no listing before September. This skin-in-the-game pricing reflects aggregated capital allocation rather than certainty. Realistic shifts could occur if broader risk appetite improves via favorable Fed policy or sector rotation, or if Tarsier secures strategic partnerships or accelerates its Tarsier-04 trial data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO before September 2026 98.6%
$250M-$300M 2.8%
$400M-$450M 2.8%
$350M-$400M 1.7%
$15,117 Vol.
$15,117 Vol.
Jul 9, 2026
<$250M
<1%
$250M-$300M
3%
$300M-$350M
<1%
$350M-$400M
2%
$400M-$450M
3%
>$450M
<1%
No IPO before September 2026
99%
No IPO before September 2026 98.6%
$250M-$300M 2.8%
$400M-$450M 2.8%
$350M-$400M 1.7%
$15,117 Vol.
$15,117 Vol.
Jul 9, 2026
<$250M
$907 Vol.
<1%
$250M-$300M
$979 Vol.
3%
$300M-$350M
$561 Vol.
<1%
$350M-$400M
$561 Vol.
2%
$400M-$450M
$349 Vol.
3%
>$450M
$680 Vol.
<1%
No IPO before September 2026
$11,080 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Tarsier Pharma's delayed IPO, initially filed with terms for a $45-50 million raise and ~$294 million midpoint market cap on NYSE American in mid-2026, has seen no closure amid a challenging biotech equity window. Weak investor appetite for clinical-stage ophthalmology assets, combined with the company's pre-revenue status, Phase 3 trial timelines, and modest offering size, has pushed trader consensus to 98.6% probability of no listing before September. This skin-in-the-game pricing reflects aggregated capital allocation rather than certainty. Realistic shifts could occur if broader risk appetite improves via favorable Fed policy or sector rotation, or if Tarsier secures strategic partnerships or accelerates its Tarsier-04 trial data.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ET
Volume
$15,117End Date
Jul 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Tarsier Pharma's delayed IPO, initially filed with terms for a $45-50 million raise and ~$294 million midpoint market cap on NYSE American in mid-2026, has seen no closure amid a challenging biotech equity window. Weak investor appetite for clinical-stage ophthalmology assets, combined with the company's pre-revenue status, Phase 3 trial timelines, and modest offering size, has pushed trader consensus to 98.6% probability of no listing before September. This skin-in-the-game pricing reflects aggregated capital allocation rather than certainty. Realistic shifts could occur if broader risk appetite improves via favorable Fed policy or sector rotation, or if Tarsier secures strategic partnerships or accelerates its Tarsier-04 trial data.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$15,117End Date
Jul 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarsier Pharma's delayed IPO, initially filed with terms for a $45-50 million raise and ~$294 million midpoint market cap on NYSE American in mid-2026, has seen no closure amid a challenging biotech equity window. Weak investor appetite for clinical-stage ophthalmology assets, combined with the company's pre-revenue status, Phase 3 trial timelines, and modest offering size, has pushed trader consensus to 98.6% probability of no listing before September. This skin-in-the-game pricing reflects aggregated capital allocation rather than certainty. Realistic shifts could occur if broader risk appetite improves via favorable Fed policy or sector rotation, or if Tarsier secures strategic partnerships or accelerates its Tarsier-04 trial data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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