Recent July 2026 data showing core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.6% in June, anchors trader positioning for the August reading amid easing energy prices and stable shelter costs. With market-implied odds tightly clustered around 2.3% to 2.5%, participants weigh persistent services inflation against cooling goods prices and labor-market softening that could support further moderation. The Federal Reserve’s current 3.5–3.75% target range and divided signals on potential September action add to uncertainty, as does the proximity of the September 11 release. Traders monitor upcoming employment reports and any shifts in Treasury yields for signals that could tip consensus toward the leading 2.4% outcome or alternatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.4% 39%
2.3% 33%
2.5% 21%
2.6% 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
≤2.0%
1%
2.1%
<1%
2.2%
4%
2.3%
33%
2.4%
39%
2.5%
21%
2.6%
4%
2.7%
3%
2.8%
3%
≥2.9%
2%
2.4% 39%
2.3% 33%
2.5% 21%
2.6% 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
≤2.0%
$297 Vol.
1%
2.1%
$252 Vol.
<1%
2.2%
$370 Vol.
4%
2.3%
$333 Vol.
33%
2.4%
$1,958 Vol.
39%
2.5%
$226 Vol.
21%
2.6%
$878 Vol.
4%
2.7%
$743 Vol.
3%
2.8%
$861 Vol.
3%
≥2.9%
$393 Vol.
2%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 data showing core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.6% in June, anchors trader positioning for the August reading amid easing energy prices and stable shelter costs. With market-implied odds tightly clustered around 2.3% to 2.5%, participants weigh persistent services inflation against cooling goods prices and labor-market softening that could support further moderation. The Federal Reserve’s current 3.5–3.75% target range and divided signals on potential September action add to uncertainty, as does the proximity of the September 11 release. Traders monitor upcoming employment reports and any shifts in Treasury yields for signals that could tip consensus toward the leading 2.4% outcome or alternatives.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
Volume
$6,310End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 data showing core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.6% in June, anchors trader positioning for the August reading amid easing energy prices and stable shelter costs. With market-implied odds tightly clustered around 2.3% to 2.5%, participants weigh persistent services inflation against cooling goods prices and labor-market softening that could support further moderation. The Federal Reserve’s current 3.5–3.75% target range and divided signals on potential September action add to uncertainty, as does the proximity of the September 11 release. Traders monitor upcoming employment reports and any shifts in Treasury yields for signals that could tip consensus toward the leading 2.4% outcome or alternatives.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$6,310End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 data showing core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.6% in June, anchors trader positioning for the August reading amid easing energy prices and stable shelter costs. With market-implied odds tightly clustered around 2.3% to 2.5%, participants weigh persistent services inflation against cooling goods prices and labor-market softening that could support further moderation. The Federal Reserve’s current 3.5–3.75% target range and divided signals on potential September action add to uncertainty, as does the proximity of the September 11 release. Traders monitor upcoming employment reports and any shifts in Treasury yields for signals that could tip consensus toward the leading 2.4% outcome or alternatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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