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Politics·Canada

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner

icon for Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner

Caroline Dubé 65%

Daniel Gobeil 30%

Régis Gaudreault 4.3%

Polymarket

$18,618 Vol.

Caroline Dubé 65%

Daniel Gobeil 30%

Régis Gaudreault 4.3%

Polymarket

$18,618 Vol.

icon for Caroline Dubé

Caroline Dubé

$7,830 Vol.

65%

icon for Daniel Gobeil

Daniel Gobeil

$8,163 Vol.

30%

icon for Régis Gaudreault

Régis Gaudreault

$2,790 Vol.

4%

A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).The by-election for Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, triggered by Conservative MP Richard Martel’s July 2026 Senate appointment, is scheduled for August 31. Trader consensus currently assigns the highest implied probability to Bloc Québécois candidate Caroline Dubé, reflecting the party’s established strength in francophone Quebec ridings and her profile as a local community leader with prior political experience. Daniel Gobeil, the Liberal nominee and agricultural sector leader announced in late July, trails amid the party’s efforts to build on its narrow 2025 showing in the three-way contest. Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault, a law professor, registers minimal market support consistent with the party’s recent seat loss in the riding. Other declared candidates from additional parties remain distant factors. With the vote date imminent, the positioning rests primarily on regional party bases and candidate visibility established during the short campaign window.

A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).
Volume
$18,618
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).
A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).The by-election for Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, triggered by Conservative MP Richard Martel’s July 2026 Senate appointment, is scheduled for August 31. Trader consensus currently assigns the highest implied probability to Bloc Québécois candidate Caroline Dubé, reflecting the party’s established strength in francophone Quebec ridings and her profile as a local community leader with prior political experience. Daniel Gobeil, the Liberal nominee and agricultural sector leader announced in late July, trails amid the party’s efforts to build on its narrow 2025 showing in the three-way contest. Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault, a law professor, registers minimal market support consistent with the party’s recent seat loss in the riding. Other declared candidates from additional parties remain distant factors. With the vote date imminent, the positioning rests primarily on regional party bases and candidate visibility established during the short campaign window.

A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).
Volume
$18,618
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Caroline Dubé" at 65%, followed by "Daniel Gobeil" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner" has generated $18.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner" is "Caroline Dubé" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Daniel Gobeil" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.