**Ongoing Houthi threats and attacks tied to the July 2026 Saudi maritime embargo continue to suppress daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeping volumes well below pre-disruption norms of roughly 100+ ships.** Recent data shows sharp volatility, with traffic plunging to daily lows of 11–16 commodity vessels in late July after the embargo announcement and subsequent strikes on Saudi targets, before partial stabilization around 26–31 transits in early August. A lethal Houthi missile strike on the deck cargo vessel *Tihamah* in the strait around August 12, which killed crew members, has reinforced risk aversion among carriers. Major lines maintain Cape of Good Hope reroutes for many services to avoid exposure, with only selective or limited transits resuming where security conditions permit. Market-implied odds favor an average below 25 ships (43%) or 25–29 (26.5%) by end-August because these levels align with the sustained suppression seen since the July escalation, absent clear de-escalation. Higher bins (30+) would require rapid normalization that recent incidents make unlikely in the near term. Traders price the skin-in-the-game consensus around persistent geopolitical friction and rerouting economics rather than any single data release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
<25 43.0%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 9%
$13,331 Vol.
$13,331 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
43%
25-29
27%
30-34
20%
35-39
9%
40+
5%
<25 43.0%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 9%
$13,331 Vol.
$13,331 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$2,892 Vol.
43%
25-29
$3,318 Vol.
27%
30-34
$3,473 Vol.
20%
35-39
$1,058 Vol.
9%
40+
$2,589 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi threats and attacks tied to the July 2026 Saudi maritime embargo continue to suppress daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeping volumes well below pre-disruption norms of roughly 100+ ships.**
Recent data shows sharp volatility, with traffic plunging to daily lows of 11–16 commodity vessels in late July after the embargo announcement and subsequent strikes on Saudi targets, before partial stabilization around 26–31 transits in early August. A lethal Houthi missile strike on the deck cargo vessel *Tihamah* in the strait around August 12, which killed crew members, has reinforced risk aversion among carriers. Major lines maintain Cape of Good Hope reroutes for many services to avoid exposure, with only selective or limited transits resuming where security conditions permit.
Market-implied odds favor an average below 25 ships (43%) or 25–29 (26.5%) by end-August because these levels align with the sustained suppression seen since the July escalation, absent clear de-escalation. Higher bins (30+) would require rapid normalization that recent incidents make unlikely in the near term. Traders price the skin-in-the-game consensus around persistent geopolitical friction and rerouting economics rather than any single data release.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$13,331End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi threats and attacks tied to the July 2026 Saudi maritime embargo continue to suppress daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeping volumes well below pre-disruption norms of roughly 100+ ships.**
Recent data shows sharp volatility, with traffic plunging to daily lows of 11–16 commodity vessels in late July after the embargo announcement and subsequent strikes on Saudi targets, before partial stabilization around 26–31 transits in early August. A lethal Houthi missile strike on the deck cargo vessel *Tihamah* in the strait around August 12, which killed crew members, has reinforced risk aversion among carriers. Major lines maintain Cape of Good Hope reroutes for many services to avoid exposure, with only selective or limited transits resuming where security conditions permit.
Market-implied odds favor an average below 25 ships (43%) or 25–29 (26.5%) by end-August because these levels align with the sustained suppression seen since the July escalation, absent clear de-escalation. Higher bins (30+) would require rapid normalization that recent incidents make unlikely in the near term. Traders price the skin-in-the-game consensus around persistent geopolitical friction and rerouting economics rather than any single data release.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$13,331End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing Houthi threats and attacks tied to the July 2026 Saudi maritime embargo continue to suppress daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeping volumes well below pre-disruption norms of roughly 100+ ships.** Recent data shows sharp volatility, with traffic plunging to daily lows of 11–16 commodity vessels in late July after the embargo announcement and subsequent strikes on Saudi targets, before partial stabilization around 26–31 transits in early August. A lethal Houthi missile strike on the deck cargo vessel *Tihamah* in the strait around August 12, which killed crew members, has reinforced risk aversion among carriers. Major lines maintain Cape of Good Hope reroutes for many services to avoid exposure, with only selective or limited transits resuming where security conditions permit. Market-implied odds favor an average below 25 ships (43%) or 25–29 (26.5%) by end-August because these levels align with the sustained suppression seen since the July escalation, absent clear de-escalation. Higher bins (30+) would require rapid normalization that recent incidents make unlikely in the near term. Traders price the skin-in-the-game consensus around persistent geopolitical friction and rerouting economics rather than any single data release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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