Recent July CPI data showing a 0.1% month-over-month rise, rebounding from June’s decline, anchors baseline expectations for August, yet resilient labor market conditions and persistent services price pressures keep trader-implied odds tightly split between 0.3% (33%) and 0.4% (39%) outcomes. Shelter components and core goods trends remain key swing factors, with upside risks from wage pressures and potential tariff pass-through contributing to the 20.5% probability assigned to ≥0.5%. Incoming nonfarm payrolls, producer prices, and energy price stability ahead of the September 11 release will likely refine these probabilities, as markets weigh implications for the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.4% 39%
0.3% 33%
≥0.5% 21%
0.2% 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
≤-0.3%
3%
-0.2%
5%
-0.1%
1%
0.0%
2%
0.1%
4%
0.2%
9%
0.3%
33%
0.4%
39%
≥0.5%
21%
0.4% 39%
0.3% 33%
≥0.5% 21%
0.2% 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
≤-0.3%
$78 Vol.
3%
-0.2%
$78 Vol.
5%
-0.1%
$163 Vol.
1%
0.0%
$228 Vol.
2%
0.1%
$194 Vol.
4%
0.2%
$78 Vol.
9%
0.3%
$175 Vol.
33%
0.4%
$433 Vol.
39%
≥0.5%
$93 Vol.
21%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data showing a 0.1% month-over-month rise, rebounding from June’s decline, anchors baseline expectations for August, yet resilient labor market conditions and persistent services price pressures keep trader-implied odds tightly split between 0.3% (33%) and 0.4% (39%) outcomes. Shelter components and core goods trends remain key swing factors, with upside risks from wage pressures and potential tariff pass-through contributing to the 20.5% probability assigned to ≥0.5%. Incoming nonfarm payrolls, producer prices, and energy price stability ahead of the September 11 release will likely refine these probabilities, as markets weigh implications for the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Volume
$1,519End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data showing a 0.1% month-over-month rise, rebounding from June’s decline, anchors baseline expectations for August, yet resilient labor market conditions and persistent services price pressures keep trader-implied odds tightly split between 0.3% (33%) and 0.4% (39%) outcomes. Shelter components and core goods trends remain key swing factors, with upside risks from wage pressures and potential tariff pass-through contributing to the 20.5% probability assigned to ≥0.5%. Incoming nonfarm payrolls, producer prices, and energy price stability ahead of the September 11 release will likely refine these probabilities, as markets weigh implications for the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$1,519End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing a 0.1% month-over-month rise, rebounding from June’s decline, anchors baseline expectations for August, yet resilient labor market conditions and persistent services price pressures keep trader-implied odds tightly split between 0.3% (33%) and 0.4% (39%) outcomes. Shelter components and core goods trends remain key swing factors, with upside risks from wage pressures and potential tariff pass-through contributing to the 20.5% probability assigned to ≥0.5%. Incoming nonfarm payrolls, producer prices, and energy price stability ahead of the September 11 release will likely refine these probabilities, as markets weigh implications for the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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