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Elections·Primaries

Alaska At-Large Primary Winners

icon for Alaska At-Large Primary Winners
Elections·Primaries

Alaska At-Large Primary Winners

$21,802 Vol.

Aug 18, 2026
Polymarket

$21,802 Vol.

Polymarket

Nick Begich III

$1,952 Vol.

99%

Bill Hill

$3,794 Vol.

98%

Matthew "Bronco" Williams

$3,379 Vol.

35%

Gavin Solomon

$4,147 Vol.

4%

John Williams

$4,185 Vol.

43%

Matt Schultz

$4,346 Vol.

35%

The non-partisan primary election for the Alaska At-Large Congressional District is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Representative from Alaska. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary determines which four candidates advance under the state’s nonpartisan system to the November ranked-choice general election for the at-large U.S. House seat. Incumbent Republican Nick Begich III, who won the seat in 2024, faces a field that includes independent Bill Hill, Republican Eddie Goldfarb, several other independents, and Democrat Eric Hafner. Earlier polling showed Begich holding a substantial lead over challengers such as Matt Schultz, who withdrew in July. Key variables for traders include turnout patterns among Alaska’s independent voters, the distribution of first-choice votes across party lines, and any late shifts in endorsements or campaign spending ahead of the vote.

The non-partisan primary election for the Alaska At-Large Congressional District is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Representative from Alaska.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Volume
$21,802
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 10:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for the Alaska At-Large Congressional District is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Representative from Alaska. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
The non-partisan primary election for the Alaska At-Large Congressional District is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Representative from Alaska. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary determines which four candidates advance under the state’s nonpartisan system to the November ranked-choice general election for the at-large U.S. House seat. Incumbent Republican Nick Begich III, who won the seat in 2024, faces a field that includes independent Bill Hill, Republican Eddie Goldfarb, several other independents, and Democrat Eric Hafner. Earlier polling showed Begich holding a substantial lead over challengers such as Matt Schultz, who withdrew in July. Key variables for traders include turnout patterns among Alaska’s independent voters, the distribution of first-choice votes across party lines, and any late shifts in endorsements or campaign spending ahead of the vote.

The non-partisan primary election for the Alaska At-Large Congressional District is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Representative from Alaska.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Volume
$21,802
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 10:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for the Alaska At-Large Congressional District is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Representative from Alaska. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Alaska At-Large Primary Winners" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nick Begich III" at 99%, followed by "Bill Hill" at 98%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Alaska At-Large Primary Winners" has generated $21.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Alaska At-Large Primary Winners," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Alaska At-Large Primary Winners" is "Nick Begich III" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Bill Hill" at 98%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Alaska At-Large Primary Winners" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.