Strong El Niño conditions combined with ongoing anthropogenic warming propelled Northern Hemisphere average temperatures to a record 22.4–22.7 °C on August 1, 2026, exceeding prior maxima by roughly 1.45 °C above the 1979–2000 baseline according to multiple analyses. This single-day spike, occurring amid widespread heat domes and ocean heat content at historic highs, underpins the 95.5 % market-implied probability that one of the first three August dates ranks as the all-time warmest. Traders weigh the consistency of satellite, reanalysis, and surface-station data against the small chance of post-processing revisions or an unforeseen measurement adjustment that could alter the ranking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 96%
2nd hottest 4.7%
3rd hottest 1.3%
4th or lower <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
1st hottest
96%
2nd hottest
5%
3rd hottest
1%
4th or lower
1%
1st hottest 96%
2nd hottest 4.7%
3rd hottest 1.3%
4th or lower <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
1st hottest
$510 Vol.
96%
2nd hottest
$334 Vol.
5%
3rd hottest
$152 Vol.
1%
4th or lower
$151 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions combined with ongoing anthropogenic warming propelled Northern Hemisphere average temperatures to a record 22.4–22.7 °C on August 1, 2026, exceeding prior maxima by roughly 1.45 °C above the 1979–2000 baseline according to multiple analyses. This single-day spike, occurring amid widespread heat domes and ocean heat content at historic highs, underpins the 95.5 % market-implied probability that one of the first three August dates ranks as the all-time warmest. Traders weigh the consistency of satellite, reanalysis, and surface-station data against the small chance of post-processing revisions or an unforeseen measurement adjustment that could alter the ranking.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$1,147End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions combined with ongoing anthropogenic warming propelled Northern Hemisphere average temperatures to a record 22.4–22.7 °C on August 1, 2026, exceeding prior maxima by roughly 1.45 °C above the 1979–2000 baseline according to multiple analyses. This single-day spike, occurring amid widespread heat domes and ocean heat content at historic highs, underpins the 95.5 % market-implied probability that one of the first three August dates ranks as the all-time warmest. Traders weigh the consistency of satellite, reanalysis, and surface-station data against the small chance of post-processing revisions or an unforeseen measurement adjustment that could alter the ranking.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$1,147End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions combined with ongoing anthropogenic warming propelled Northern Hemisphere average temperatures to a record 22.4–22.7 °C on August 1, 2026, exceeding prior maxima by roughly 1.45 °C above the 1979–2000 baseline according to multiple analyses. This single-day spike, occurring amid widespread heat domes and ocean heat content at historic highs, underpins the 95.5 % market-implied probability that one of the first three August dates ranks as the all-time warmest. Traders weigh the consistency of satellite, reanalysis, and surface-station data against the small chance of post-processing revisions or an unforeseen measurement adjustment that could alter the ranking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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