Meta's recent Muse Spark release in July 2026, which matched or approached frontier performance in coding, reasoning, and other benchmarks, has boosted its market-implied odds to 42.5% for the #2 AI lab position by end of September. This follows Llama 5's April open-weight push, strengthening Meta's ecosystem and developer adoption amid intense competition. Google holds 28.5% on steady Gemini 3.6/3.7 Flash updates and broad capabilities, while OpenAI at 12.5% reflects enterprise focus via recent ChatGPT Work tools but fewer frontier model drops. Anthropic and others trail amid Claude Opus 5's July launch. Traders weigh these rapid capability shifts and upcoming Q3 releases against typical model iteration timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMeta 41%
Google 29%
OpenAI 13%
Anthropic 7.2%
$31,427 Vol.
$31,427 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
43%
29%
OpenAI
13%
Anthropic
7%
Alibaba
7%
SpaceXAI
5%
StepFun
4%
Meituan
2%
Moonshot
2%
Z.ai
1%
MiniMax
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Xiaomi
8%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meta 41%
Google 29%
OpenAI 13%
Anthropic 7.2%
$31,427 Vol.
$31,427 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
$4,700 Vol.
43%
$4,518 Vol.
29%
OpenAI
$7,536 Vol.
13%
Anthropic
$836 Vol.
7%
Alibaba
$3,985 Vol.
7%
SpaceXAI
$526 Vol.
5%
StepFun
$610 Vol.
4%
Meituan
$618 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$647 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$579 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$1,102 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$794 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$536 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$494 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$502 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$536 Vol.
8%
Thinky
$524 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$555 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$682 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$686 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$460 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's recent Muse Spark release in July 2026, which matched or approached frontier performance in coding, reasoning, and other benchmarks, has boosted its market-implied odds to 42.5% for the #2 AI lab position by end of September. This follows Llama 5's April open-weight push, strengthening Meta's ecosystem and developer adoption amid intense competition. Google holds 28.5% on steady Gemini 3.6/3.7 Flash updates and broad capabilities, while OpenAI at 12.5% reflects enterprise focus via recent ChatGPT Work tools but fewer frontier model drops. Anthropic and others trail amid Claude Opus 5's July launch. Traders weigh these rapid capability shifts and upcoming Q3 releases against typical model iteration timelines.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$31,427End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's recent Muse Spark release in July 2026, which matched or approached frontier performance in coding, reasoning, and other benchmarks, has boosted its market-implied odds to 42.5% for the #2 AI lab position by end of September. This follows Llama 5's April open-weight push, strengthening Meta's ecosystem and developer adoption amid intense competition. Google holds 28.5% on steady Gemini 3.6/3.7 Flash updates and broad capabilities, while OpenAI at 12.5% reflects enterprise focus via recent ChatGPT Work tools but fewer frontier model drops. Anthropic and others trail amid Claude Opus 5's July launch. Traders weigh these rapid capability shifts and upcoming Q3 releases against typical model iteration timelines.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$31,427End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta's recent Muse Spark release in July 2026, which matched or approached frontier performance in coding, reasoning, and other benchmarks, has boosted its market-implied odds to 42.5% for the #2 AI lab position by end of September. This follows Llama 5's April open-weight push, strengthening Meta's ecosystem and developer adoption amid intense competition. Google holds 28.5% on steady Gemini 3.6/3.7 Flash updates and broad capabilities, while OpenAI at 12.5% reflects enterprise focus via recent ChatGPT Work tools but fewer frontier model drops. Anthropic and others trail amid Claude Opus 5's July launch. Traders weigh these rapid capability shifts and upcoming Q3 releases against typical model iteration timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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