Presidential resignations remain exceptionally rare in U.S. history, with only one instance in modern times driven by acute political crisis. As of mid-2026, no comparable developments—such as active impeachment proceedings, widespread party defections, or confirmed health crises—have emerged to pressure Donald Trump toward resignation before the end of his term. Traders price the "No" outcome near certainty because structural barriers, including strong institutional incentives to complete the term and lack of electoral or legal triggers within the resolution window, outweigh speculative risks. Late developments like sudden medical incapacity or major scandals could theoretically shift probabilities, though none are currently indicated by primary sources.