South Korea’s former president Yoon Suk-yeol remains in detention at the Seoul Detention Center following multiple convictions tied to his 2024 martial law declaration. In February 2026 a court sentenced him to life imprisonment for insurrection, a ruling he appealed; the Supreme Court later upheld a separate seven-year term in July 2026, while a June 2026 verdict imposed an additional 30-year sentence in the drone-incursion case. These final or partially final outcomes, combined with ongoing appeals and other proceedings, create substantial legal barriers to release. Traders therefore assign an overwhelming implied probability against Yoon leaving custody before the start of 2027, consistent with the extended timelines typical of high-level South Korean criminal appeals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedYoon out of custody before 2027?
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
7% chance
$182,184 Vol.
$182,184 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$182,184 Vol.
$182,184 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korea’s former president Yoon Suk-yeol remains in detention at the Seoul Detention Center following multiple convictions tied to his 2024 martial law declaration. In February 2026 a court sentenced him to life imprisonment for insurrection, a ruling he appealed; the Supreme Court later upheld a separate seven-year term in July 2026, while a June 2026 verdict imposed an additional 30-year sentence in the drone-incursion case. These final or partially final outcomes, combined with ongoing appeals and other proceedings, create substantial legal barriers to release. Traders therefore assign an overwhelming implied probability against Yoon leaving custody before the start of 2027, consistent with the extended timelines typical of high-level South Korean criminal appeals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ET
Volume
$182,184End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korea’s former president Yoon Suk-yeol remains in detention at the Seoul Detention Center following multiple convictions tied to his 2024 martial law declaration. In February 2026 a court sentenced him to life imprisonment for insurrection, a ruling he appealed; the Supreme Court later upheld a separate seven-year term in July 2026, while a June 2026 verdict imposed an additional 30-year sentence in the drone-incursion case. These final or partially final outcomes, combined with ongoing appeals and other proceedings, create substantial legal barriers to release. Traders therefore assign an overwhelming implied probability against Yoon leaving custody before the start of 2027, consistent with the extended timelines typical of high-level South Korean criminal appeals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$182,184End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...South Korea’s former president Yoon Suk-yeol remains in detention at the Seoul Detention Center following multiple convictions tied to his 2024 martial law declaration. In February 2026 a court sentenced him to life imprisonment for insurrection, a ruling he appealed; the Supreme Court later upheld a separate seven-year term in July 2026, while a June 2026 verdict imposed an additional 30-year sentence in the drone-incursion case. These final or partially final outcomes, combined with ongoing appeals and other proceedings, create substantial legal barriers to release. Traders therefore assign an overwhelming implied probability against Yoon leaving custody before the start of 2027, consistent with the extended timelines typical of high-level South Korean criminal appeals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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