The Bank of Korea’s July 2026 25 basis point hike to 2.75%—its first since January 2023—shifted focus to inflation risks, with headline CPI at 3.2% in June well above the 2% target amid higher oil prices and a weaker won. Recent comments from outgoing Deputy Governor Ryoo Sang-dai reinforced expectations for preemptive tightening unless an extraordinary shock occurs, supporting the slight edge for another 25 basis point move at the August 27 meeting. The closely matched odds between a hike and a hold reflect data dependence, with traders weighing robust semiconductor-driven growth forecasts of 2.6% against uncertainties in exchange rates, household credit, property prices, and incoming inflation prints. Markets price in a modest further tightening path while acknowledging the potential for a pause if domestic demand or external factors moderate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Korea decision in August?
Bank of Korea decision in August?
25 bps hike 54%
No Change 45%
25 bps cut <1%
50+ bps cut <1%
$27,229 Vol.
$27,229 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
50+ bps cut
<1%
25 bps cut
1%
No Change
45%
25 bps hike
54%
50+ bps hike
<1%
25 bps hike 54%
No Change 45%
25 bps cut <1%
50+ bps cut <1%
$27,229 Vol.
$27,229 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
50+ bps cut
$2,164 Vol.
<1%
25 bps cut
$2,233 Vol.
1%
No Change
$13,743 Vol.
45%
25 bps hike
$7,707 Vol.
54%
50+ bps hike
$1,383 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.The Bank of Korea’s July 2026 25 basis point hike to 2.75%—its first since January 2023—shifted focus to inflation risks, with headline CPI at 3.2% in June well above the 2% target amid higher oil prices and a weaker won. Recent comments from outgoing Deputy Governor Ryoo Sang-dai reinforced expectations for preemptive tightening unless an extraordinary shock occurs, supporting the slight edge for another 25 basis point move at the August 27 meeting. The closely matched odds between a hike and a hold reflect data dependence, with traders weighing robust semiconductor-driven growth forecasts of 2.6% against uncertainties in exchange rates, household credit, property prices, and incoming inflation prints. Markets price in a modest further tightening path while acknowledging the potential for a pause if domestic demand or external factors moderate.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Market Opened: May 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$27,229End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.The Bank of Korea’s July 2026 25 basis point hike to 2.75%—its first since January 2023—shifted focus to inflation risks, with headline CPI at 3.2% in June well above the 2% target amid higher oil prices and a weaker won. Recent comments from outgoing Deputy Governor Ryoo Sang-dai reinforced expectations for preemptive tightening unless an extraordinary shock occurs, supporting the slight edge for another 25 basis point move at the August 27 meeting. The closely matched odds between a hike and a hold reflect data dependence, with traders weighing robust semiconductor-driven growth forecasts of 2.6% against uncertainties in exchange rates, household credit, property prices, and incoming inflation prints. Markets price in a modest further tightening path while acknowledging the potential for a pause if domestic demand or external factors moderate.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Volume
$27,229End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Korea’s July 2026 25 basis point hike to 2.75%—its first since January 2023—shifted focus to inflation risks, with headline CPI at 3.2% in June well above the 2% target amid higher oil prices and a weaker won. Recent comments from outgoing Deputy Governor Ryoo Sang-dai reinforced expectations for preemptive tightening unless an extraordinary shock occurs, supporting the slight edge for another 25 basis point move at the August 27 meeting. The closely matched odds between a hike and a hold reflect data dependence, with traders weighing robust semiconductor-driven growth forecasts of 2.6% against uncertainties in exchange rates, household credit, property prices, and incoming inflation prints. Markets price in a modest further tightening path while acknowledging the potential for a pause if domestic demand or external factors moderate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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