Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran’s supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following his father’s assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. He sustained injuries in the attack and has maintained a near-total absence from public events, including funeral ceremonies in July, prompting persistent questions about his physical condition and location. Israeli security assessments and intelligence reports have claimed he is no longer in Iran and may have sought treatment abroad, possibly in Russia, while Iranian state media have countered with footage and statements asserting he remains in the country and in good health. Ongoing regional conflict, IRGC influence over decision-making, and questions about security arrangements continue to shape assessments of whether he will depart Iran before any specified deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$102,209 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$102,209 Vol.
August 31
$60,307 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran’s supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following his father’s assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. He sustained injuries in the attack and has maintained a near-total absence from public events, including funeral ceremonies in July, prompting persistent questions about his physical condition and location. Israeli security assessments and intelligence reports have claimed he is no longer in Iran and may have sought treatment abroad, possibly in Russia, while Iranian state media have countered with footage and statements asserting he remains in the country and in good health. Ongoing regional conflict, IRGC influence over decision-making, and questions about security arrangements continue to shape assessments of whether he will depart Iran before any specified deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ET
Volume
$102,209End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran’s supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following his father’s assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. He sustained injuries in the attack and has maintained a near-total absence from public events, including funeral ceremonies in July, prompting persistent questions about his physical condition and location. Israeli security assessments and intelligence reports have claimed he is no longer in Iran and may have sought treatment abroad, possibly in Russia, while Iranian state media have countered with footage and statements asserting he remains in the country and in good health. Ongoing regional conflict, IRGC influence over decision-making, and questions about security arrangements continue to shape assessments of whether he will depart Iran before any specified deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$102,209End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran’s supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following his father’s assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. He sustained injuries in the attack and has maintained a near-total absence from public events, including funeral ceremonies in July, prompting persistent questions about his physical condition and location. Israeli security assessments and intelligence reports have claimed he is no longer in Iran and may have sought treatment abroad, possibly in Russia, while Iranian state media have countered with footage and statements asserting he remains in the country and in good health. Ongoing regional conflict, IRGC influence over decision-making, and questions about security arrangements continue to shape assessments of whether he will depart Iran before any specified deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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