Tesla's lack of progress toward California DMV and CPUC driverless permits remains the dominant factor behind the 81.5% market-implied odds against a robotaxi launch by year-end. The company holds only a basic autonomous testing permit allowing supervised operation with a safety driver and has accumulated zero qualifying autonomous miles on public roads in recent years, falling far short of the 50,000-mile threshold typically required before applying for unsupervised testing. While Tesla runs a limited Bay Area ride-hailing service, regulators classify it as a chartered limousine operation rather than true SAE Level 4 autonomy. New 2026 enforcement rules further tighten oversight, and repeated timeline slips plus ongoing FSD marketing scrutiny have reinforced trader skepticism despite faster unsupervised rollouts in Texas.