Amazon’s market capitalization has hovered near $2.8–2.9 trillion in mid-August 2026 after briefly exceeding $3 trillion following stronger-than-expected Q2 results that featured 37% AWS revenue growth and a $169 billion annualized run rate. Elevated capital expenditures, now guided at $220 billion for the full year to support AI infrastructure and custom chips, are compressing near-term free cash flow and tempering upside expectations for the remaining four-plus months of 2026. Advertising and retail segments continue to deliver double-digit gains, yet consensus analyst price targets cluster around levels implying modest additional appreciation from current share prices near $263. With the two leading Polymarket bins ($2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion) separated by just one percentage point, trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether sustained AWS momentum and operating-margin expansion can offset the valuation impact of heavy AI spending before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$3.50-$4.00T 27%
$2.50-$3.00T 23%
$3.00-$3.50T 22%
$2.00-$2.50T 10%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.00T
5%
$2.00-$2.50T
10%
$2.50-$3.00T
23%
$3.00-$3.50T
22%
$3.50-$4.00T
27%
$4.00-$4.50T
8%
$4.50T+
6%
$3.50-$4.00T 27%
$2.50-$3.00T 23%
$3.00-$3.50T 22%
$2.00-$2.50T 10%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.00T
$176 Vol.
5%
$2.00-$2.50T
$160 Vol.
10%
$2.50-$3.00T
$490 Vol.
23%
$3.00-$3.50T
$156 Vol.
22%
$3.50-$4.00T
$226 Vol.
27%
$4.00-$4.50T
$160 Vol.
8%
$4.50T+
$185 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon’s market capitalization has hovered near $2.8–2.9 trillion in mid-August 2026 after briefly exceeding $3 trillion following stronger-than-expected Q2 results that featured 37% AWS revenue growth and a $169 billion annualized run rate. Elevated capital expenditures, now guided at $220 billion for the full year to support AI infrastructure and custom chips, are compressing near-term free cash flow and tempering upside expectations for the remaining four-plus months of 2026. Advertising and retail segments continue to deliver double-digit gains, yet consensus analyst price targets cluster around levels implying modest additional appreciation from current share prices near $263. With the two leading Polymarket bins ($2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion) separated by just one percentage point, trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether sustained AWS momentum and operating-margin expansion can offset the valuation impact of heavy AI spending before year-end.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ET
Volume
$1,552End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon’s market capitalization has hovered near $2.8–2.9 trillion in mid-August 2026 after briefly exceeding $3 trillion following stronger-than-expected Q2 results that featured 37% AWS revenue growth and a $169 billion annualized run rate. Elevated capital expenditures, now guided at $220 billion for the full year to support AI infrastructure and custom chips, are compressing near-term free cash flow and tempering upside expectations for the remaining four-plus months of 2026. Advertising and retail segments continue to deliver double-digit gains, yet consensus analyst price targets cluster around levels implying modest additional appreciation from current share prices near $263. With the two leading Polymarket bins ($2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion) separated by just one percentage point, trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether sustained AWS momentum and operating-margin expansion can offset the valuation impact of heavy AI spending before year-end.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$1,552End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amazon’s market capitalization has hovered near $2.8–2.9 trillion in mid-August 2026 after briefly exceeding $3 trillion following stronger-than-expected Q2 results that featured 37% AWS revenue growth and a $169 billion annualized run rate. Elevated capital expenditures, now guided at $220 billion for the full year to support AI infrastructure and custom chips, are compressing near-term free cash flow and tempering upside expectations for the remaining four-plus months of 2026. Advertising and retail segments continue to deliver double-digit gains, yet consensus analyst price targets cluster around levels implying modest additional appreciation from current share prices near $263. With the two leading Polymarket bins ($2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion) separated by just one percentage point, trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether sustained AWS momentum and operating-margin expansion can offset the valuation impact of heavy AI spending before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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