Traders assign a 68% probability that rebels will not capture Gao by year-end, reflecting the Malian junta’s continued hold on the regional capital despite the FLA-JNIM alliance’s April 2026 offensive that secured Kidal and several Gao-region towns such as Bourem and Tessit. Subsequent July ambushes on army convoys near Anéfis and Tabankort demonstrated persistent rebel pressure and coordination between Tuareg separatists and JNIM fighters, yet Malian forces backed by Russia’s Africa Corps have conducted counterattacks and maintained defensive positions around Gao. The absence of a decisive rebel push on the city itself in the four months since the initial offensive, combined with ongoing government reinforcements along northern supply routes, supports the current market consensus that a full capture remains unlikely before the December 31 resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Rebels capture Gao by December 31?
Will Rebels capture Gao by December 31?
26% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
26% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.Traders assign a 68% probability that rebels will not capture Gao by year-end, reflecting the Malian junta’s continued hold on the regional capital despite the FLA-JNIM alliance’s April 2026 offensive that secured Kidal and several Gao-region towns such as Bourem and Tessit. Subsequent July ambushes on army convoys near Anéfis and Tabankort demonstrated persistent rebel pressure and coordination between Tuareg separatists and JNIM fighters, yet Malian forces backed by Russia’s Africa Corps have conducted counterattacks and maintained defensive positions around Gao. The absence of a decisive rebel push on the city itself in the four months since the initial offensive, combined with ongoing government reinforcements along northern supply routes, supports the current market consensus that a full capture remains unlikely before the December 31 resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$1,494End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.Traders assign a 68% probability that rebels will not capture Gao by year-end, reflecting the Malian junta’s continued hold on the regional capital despite the FLA-JNIM alliance’s April 2026 offensive that secured Kidal and several Gao-region towns such as Bourem and Tessit. Subsequent July ambushes on army convoys near Anéfis and Tabankort demonstrated persistent rebel pressure and coordination between Tuareg separatists and JNIM fighters, yet Malian forces backed by Russia’s Africa Corps have conducted counterattacks and maintained defensive positions around Gao. The absence of a decisive rebel push on the city itself in the four months since the initial offensive, combined with ongoing government reinforcements along northern supply routes, supports the current market consensus that a full capture remains unlikely before the December 31 resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Volume
$1,494End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 68% probability that rebels will not capture Gao by year-end, reflecting the Malian junta’s continued hold on the regional capital despite the FLA-JNIM alliance’s April 2026 offensive that secured Kidal and several Gao-region towns such as Bourem and Tessit. Subsequent July ambushes on army convoys near Anéfis and Tabankort demonstrated persistent rebel pressure and coordination between Tuareg separatists and JNIM fighters, yet Malian forces backed by Russia’s Africa Corps have conducted counterattacks and maintained defensive positions around Gao. The absence of a decisive rebel push on the city itself in the four months since the initial offensive, combined with ongoing government reinforcements along northern supply routes, supports the current market consensus that a full capture remains unlikely before the December 31 resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions