Russian forces captured Huliaipole in January 2026 following a months-long offensive that began in September 2025, with independent monitors confirming full control after initial Ukrainian resistance in the western outskirts. Ukrainian counterattacks in February and March 2026 reclaimed nearby settlements and ground north of the town, halting Russian momentum along the axis and forcing redeployments, but these operations did not restore Ukrainian positions inside Huliaipole itself. As of July 2026, Russian units continued localized assaults in the direction without reported advances, while Ukrainian forces maintained defensive pressure through strikes and positional engagements. The market centers on whether Ukrainian troops can achieve re-entry amid ongoing attritional fighting in Zaporizhzhia Oblast before the resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by...?
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by...?
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
20%
December 31
17%
$2,555 Vol.
October 31
$2,215 Vol.
20%
December 31
$340 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces captured Huliaipole in January 2026 following a months-long offensive that began in September 2025, with independent monitors confirming full control after initial Ukrainian resistance in the western outskirts. Ukrainian counterattacks in February and March 2026 reclaimed nearby settlements and ground north of the town, halting Russian momentum along the axis and forcing redeployments, but these operations did not restore Ukrainian positions inside Huliaipole itself. As of July 2026, Russian units continued localized assaults in the direction without reported advances, while Ukrainian forces maintained defensive pressure through strikes and positional engagements. The market centers on whether Ukrainian troops can achieve re-entry amid ongoing attritional fighting in Zaporizhzhia Oblast before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$2,555End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces captured Huliaipole in January 2026 following a months-long offensive that began in September 2025, with independent monitors confirming full control after initial Ukrainian resistance in the western outskirts. Ukrainian counterattacks in February and March 2026 reclaimed nearby settlements and ground north of the town, halting Russian momentum along the axis and forcing redeployments, but these operations did not restore Ukrainian positions inside Huliaipole itself. As of July 2026, Russian units continued localized assaults in the direction without reported advances, while Ukrainian forces maintained defensive pressure through strikes and positional engagements. The market centers on whether Ukrainian troops can achieve re-entry amid ongoing attritional fighting in Zaporizhzhia Oblast before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$2,555End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces captured Huliaipole in January 2026 following a months-long offensive that began in September 2025, with independent monitors confirming full control after initial Ukrainian resistance in the western outskirts. Ukrainian counterattacks in February and March 2026 reclaimed nearby settlements and ground north of the town, halting Russian momentum along the axis and forcing redeployments, but these operations did not restore Ukrainian positions inside Huliaipole itself. As of July 2026, Russian units continued localized assaults in the direction without reported advances, while Ukrainian forces maintained defensive pressure through strikes and positional engagements. The market centers on whether Ukrainian troops can achieve re-entry amid ongoing attritional fighting in Zaporizhzhia Oblast before the resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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