**Traders assign a 91% probability that the Parti Vert du Québec (PVQ) will not win any seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election because the party continues to register negligible support in public polling and seat projections.** Recent surveys from Léger, Pallas Data, and Synopsis (late August 2026) show the five major parties—Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Parti libéral du Québec, Parti conservateur du Québec, and Québec solidaire—accounting for virtually all voting intentions, with PVQ either omitted or below measurable thresholds. Seat models from 338Canada, Poliwave, and The Writ project dozens of ridings for the leading parties but none for the Greens, consistent with the party’s 0.75% result in 2022 and limited organizational presence. Early 2026 surveys occasionally noted modest gains (around 4% in one Innovative poll, stronger among younger voters in Montreal), yet these have not appeared in subsequent campaign-period polling or translated into competitive riding-level strength. With the writ dropped on August 27 and a new 127-seat map in play, the race remains focused on francophone and regional dynamics that favor established parties. No recent developments have altered this positioning, leaving little basis in current data for a PVQ breakthrough.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
3% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Traders assign a 91% probability that the Parti Vert du Québec (PVQ) will not win any seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election because the party continues to register negligible support in public polling and seat projections.**
Recent surveys from Léger, Pallas Data, and Synopsis (late August 2026) show the five major parties—Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Parti libéral du Québec, Parti conservateur du Québec, and Québec solidaire—accounting for virtually all voting intentions, with PVQ either omitted or below measurable thresholds. Seat models from 338Canada, Poliwave, and The Writ project dozens of ridings for the leading parties but none for the Greens, consistent with the party’s 0.75% result in 2022 and limited organizational presence.
Early 2026 surveys occasionally noted modest gains (around 4% in one Innovative poll, stronger among younger voters in Montreal), yet these have not appeared in subsequent campaign-period polling or translated into competitive riding-level strength. With the writ dropped on August 27 and a new 127-seat map in play, the race remains focused on francophone and regional dynamics that favor established parties. No recent developments have altered this positioning, leaving little basis in current data for a PVQ breakthrough.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$203End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Traders assign a 91% probability that the Parti Vert du Québec (PVQ) will not win any seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election because the party continues to register negligible support in public polling and seat projections.**
Recent surveys from Léger, Pallas Data, and Synopsis (late August 2026) show the five major parties—Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Parti libéral du Québec, Parti conservateur du Québec, and Québec solidaire—accounting for virtually all voting intentions, with PVQ either omitted or below measurable thresholds. Seat models from 338Canada, Poliwave, and The Writ project dozens of ridings for the leading parties but none for the Greens, consistent with the party’s 0.75% result in 2022 and limited organizational presence.
Early 2026 surveys occasionally noted modest gains (around 4% in one Innovative poll, stronger among younger voters in Montreal), yet these have not appeared in subsequent campaign-period polling or translated into competitive riding-level strength. With the writ dropped on August 27 and a new 127-seat map in play, the race remains focused on francophone and regional dynamics that favor established parties. No recent developments have altered this positioning, leaving little basis in current data for a PVQ breakthrough.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$203End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 91% probability that the Parti Vert du Québec (PVQ) will not win any seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election because the party continues to register negligible support in public polling and seat projections.** Recent surveys from Léger, Pallas Data, and Synopsis (late August 2026) show the five major parties—Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Parti libéral du Québec, Parti conservateur du Québec, and Québec solidaire—accounting for virtually all voting intentions, with PVQ either omitted or below measurable thresholds. Seat models from 338Canada, Poliwave, and The Writ project dozens of ridings for the leading parties but none for the Greens, consistent with the party’s 0.75% result in 2022 and limited organizational presence. Early 2026 surveys occasionally noted modest gains (around 4% in one Innovative poll, stronger among younger voters in Montreal), yet these have not appeared in subsequent campaign-period polling or translated into competitive riding-level strength. With the writ dropped on August 27 and a new 127-seat map in play, the race remains focused on francophone and regional dynamics that favor established parties. No recent developments have altered this positioning, leaving little basis in current data for a PVQ breakthrough.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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