**Recent polls and seat projections indicate the Parti Québécois (PQ) leads voting intentions at around 29% but faces a fragmented field that makes a majority unlikely.** The October 5, 2026, Quebec general election features a multi-party contest, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24%, Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, Conservative Party of Québec (PCQ) at 15%, and Québec solidaire (QS) at 10%. Aggregators such as 338Canada project the PQ winning a plurality of seats in most scenarios (around 49 on average) but rarely reaching the 64-seat threshold for a majority, with odds of a PQ majority estimated near 10%. The PQ’s strength is concentrated among francophone voters, yet the split federalist vote across the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ, combined with regional riding dynamics, limits its path to a majority. Late-campaign fluidity remains high, with 42% of decided voters open to changing their choice, and recent shifts have narrowed the PQ’s lead as the CAQ gains ground. These patterns align with trader consensus pricing a low probability of a PQ majority government.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
25% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polls and seat projections indicate the Parti Québécois (PQ) leads voting intentions at around 29% but faces a fragmented field that makes a majority unlikely.**
The October 5, 2026, Quebec general election features a multi-party contest, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24%, Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, Conservative Party of Québec (PCQ) at 15%, and Québec solidaire (QS) at 10%. Aggregators such as 338Canada project the PQ winning a plurality of seats in most scenarios (around 49 on average) but rarely reaching the 64-seat threshold for a majority, with odds of a PQ majority estimated near 10%.
The PQ’s strength is concentrated among francophone voters, yet the split federalist vote across the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ, combined with regional riding dynamics, limits its path to a majority. Late-campaign fluidity remains high, with 42% of decided voters open to changing their choice, and recent shifts have narrowed the PQ’s lead as the CAQ gains ground. These patterns align with trader consensus pricing a low probability of a PQ majority government.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$992End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polls and seat projections indicate the Parti Québécois (PQ) leads voting intentions at around 29% but faces a fragmented field that makes a majority unlikely.**
The October 5, 2026, Quebec general election features a multi-party contest, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24%, Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, Conservative Party of Québec (PCQ) at 15%, and Québec solidaire (QS) at 10%. Aggregators such as 338Canada project the PQ winning a plurality of seats in most scenarios (around 49 on average) but rarely reaching the 64-seat threshold for a majority, with odds of a PQ majority estimated near 10%.
The PQ’s strength is concentrated among francophone voters, yet the split federalist vote across the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ, combined with regional riding dynamics, limits its path to a majority. Late-campaign fluidity remains high, with 42% of decided voters open to changing their choice, and recent shifts have narrowed the PQ’s lead as the CAQ gains ground. These patterns align with trader consensus pricing a low probability of a PQ majority government.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$992End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polls and seat projections indicate the Parti Québécois (PQ) leads voting intentions at around 29% but faces a fragmented field that makes a majority unlikely.** The October 5, 2026, Quebec general election features a multi-party contest, with the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24%, Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, Conservative Party of Québec (PCQ) at 15%, and Québec solidaire (QS) at 10%. Aggregators such as 338Canada project the PQ winning a plurality of seats in most scenarios (around 49 on average) but rarely reaching the 64-seat threshold for a majority, with odds of a PQ majority estimated near 10%. The PQ’s strength is concentrated among francophone voters, yet the split federalist vote across the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ, combined with regional riding dynamics, limits its path to a majority. Late-campaign fluidity remains high, with 42% of decided voters open to changing their choice, and recent shifts have narrowed the PQ’s lead as the CAQ gains ground. These patterns align with trader consensus pricing a low probability of a PQ majority government.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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