The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, resolved a long-standing source of quota friction for one of the group's larger producers with substantial spare capacity. Since then, the remaining 11 members have maintained coordinated output adjustments through OPEC+ ministerial meetings, including incremental quota increases in mid-2026 amid supply disruptions linked to regional conflicts. No other member has signaled an imminent exit or formal reconsideration of membership, and official statements from capitals continue to emphasize collective market-stability efforts rather than unilateral withdrawal. Historical patterns show departures occur sporadically over years rather than in clusters, supporting trader consensus that the probability of an additional exit before year-end remains low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
9% chance
$159,694 Vol.
$159,694 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
9% chance
$159,694 Vol.
$159,694 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, resolved a long-standing source of quota friction for one of the group's larger producers with substantial spare capacity. Since then, the remaining 11 members have maintained coordinated output adjustments through OPEC+ ministerial meetings, including incremental quota increases in mid-2026 amid supply disruptions linked to regional conflicts. No other member has signaled an imminent exit or formal reconsideration of membership, and official statements from capitals continue to emphasize collective market-stability efforts rather than unilateral withdrawal. Historical patterns show departures occur sporadically over years rather than in clusters, supporting trader consensus that the probability of an additional exit before year-end remains low.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$159,694End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, resolved a long-standing source of quota friction for one of the group's larger producers with substantial spare capacity. Since then, the remaining 11 members have maintained coordinated output adjustments through OPEC+ ministerial meetings, including incremental quota increases in mid-2026 amid supply disruptions linked to regional conflicts. No other member has signaled an imminent exit or formal reconsideration of membership, and official statements from capitals continue to emphasize collective market-stability efforts rather than unilateral withdrawal. Historical patterns show departures occur sporadically over years rather than in clusters, supporting trader consensus that the probability of an additional exit before year-end remains low.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$159,694End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, resolved a long-standing source of quota friction for one of the group's larger producers with substantial spare capacity. Since then, the remaining 11 members have maintained coordinated output adjustments through OPEC+ ministerial meetings, including incremental quota increases in mid-2026 amid supply disruptions linked to regional conflicts. No other member has signaled an imminent exit or formal reconsideration of membership, and official statements from capitals continue to emphasize collective market-stability efforts rather than unilateral withdrawal. Historical patterns show departures occur sporadically over years rather than in clusters, supporting trader consensus that the probability of an additional exit before year-end remains low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions