Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County, has delivered consistent Democratic majorities for decades due to its urban and suburban demographics. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary and enters the November general election with the structural advantages of long tenure, name recognition, and alignment with the district’s voting patterns. The Republican nominee, perennial candidate Tim Rogers, lacks comparable resources or visibility. Trader consensus at 98.2% for the Democratic nominee reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent developments—such as redistricting, candidate withdrawals, or major controversies—that would alter the race’s trajectory. A late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-04 House Election Winner
WI-04 House Election Winner
$33,516 Vol.
$33,516 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
2%
$33,516 Vol.
$33,516 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,352 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$21,164 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County, has delivered consistent Democratic majorities for decades due to its urban and suburban demographics. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary and enters the November general election with the structural advantages of long tenure, name recognition, and alignment with the district’s voting patterns. The Republican nominee, perennial candidate Tim Rogers, lacks comparable resources or visibility. Trader consensus at 98.2% for the Democratic nominee reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent developments—such as redistricting, candidate withdrawals, or major controversies—that would alter the race’s trajectory. A late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$33,516End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County, has delivered consistent Democratic majorities for decades due to its urban and suburban demographics. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary and enters the November general election with the structural advantages of long tenure, name recognition, and alignment with the district’s voting patterns. The Republican nominee, perennial candidate Tim Rogers, lacks comparable resources or visibility. Trader consensus at 98.2% for the Democratic nominee reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent developments—such as redistricting, candidate withdrawals, or major controversies—that would alter the race’s trajectory. A late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,516End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County, has delivered consistent Democratic majorities for decades due to its urban and suburban demographics. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary and enters the November general election with the structural advantages of long tenure, name recognition, and alignment with the district’s voting patterns. The Republican nominee, perennial candidate Tim Rogers, lacks comparable resources or visibility. Trader consensus at 98.2% for the Democratic nominee reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent developments—such as redistricting, candidate withdrawals, or major controversies—that would alter the race’s trajectory. A late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability based on current evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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