Traders see near-even odds across multiple firms and "Other" because no single developer holds a decisive lead on image-to-video benchmarks as of mid-September 2026. MiniMax's July H3 release, including post-trained variants topping Artificial Analysis Elo scores around 1200, underpins its 45.5% implied probability, yet Google's Gemini Omni Flash and Veo 3.1 deliver competitive multimodal realism and prompt adherence that keep its odds at 32%. ByteDance Seedance 2.0 excels in multi-reference consistency and longer clips, while Alibaba's Wan models and Kling 3.0 challenge on motion quality and value. The fragmented sentiment reflects rapid model iteration, frequent leaderboard shifts, and uncertainty over whether any entrant will pull ahead before the October resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMiniMax 46%
Google 34%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 9%
ByteDance 8%
$10,708 Vol.
$10,708 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
MiniMax
46%
34%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
9%
ByteDance
8%
Black Forest Labs
1%
Luma AI
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Shengshu
<1%
KlingAI
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Pixverse
<1%
Pika
<1%
Lightricks
<1%
Pruna
<1%
Runway
<1%
MiniMax 46%
Google 34%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 9%
ByteDance 8%
$10,708 Vol.
$10,708 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
MiniMax
$3,220 Vol.
46%
$1,919 Vol.
34%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$805 Vol.
9%
ByteDance
$529 Vol.
8%
Black Forest Labs
$297 Vol.
1%
Luma AI
$179 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$399 Vol.
1%
Shengshu
$349 Vol.
<1%
KlingAI
$368 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$369 Vol.
<1%
Pixverse
$316 Vol.
<1%
Pika
$452 Vol.
<1%
Lightricks
$516 Vol.
<1%
Pruna
$482 Vol.
<1%
Runway
$507 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see near-even odds across multiple firms and "Other" because no single developer holds a decisive lead on image-to-video benchmarks as of mid-September 2026. MiniMax's July H3 release, including post-trained variants topping Artificial Analysis Elo scores around 1200, underpins its 45.5% implied probability, yet Google's Gemini Omni Flash and Veo 3.1 deliver competitive multimodal realism and prompt adherence that keep its odds at 32%. ByteDance Seedance 2.0 excels in multi-reference consistency and longer clips, while Alibaba's Wan models and Kling 3.0 challenge on motion quality and value. The fragmented sentiment reflects rapid model iteration, frequent leaderboard shifts, and uncertainty over whether any entrant will pull ahead before the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$10,708End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see near-even odds across multiple firms and "Other" because no single developer holds a decisive lead on image-to-video benchmarks as of mid-September 2026. MiniMax's July H3 release, including post-trained variants topping Artificial Analysis Elo scores around 1200, underpins its 45.5% implied probability, yet Google's Gemini Omni Flash and Veo 3.1 deliver competitive multimodal realism and prompt adherence that keep its odds at 32%. ByteDance Seedance 2.0 excels in multi-reference consistency and longer clips, while Alibaba's Wan models and Kling 3.0 challenge on motion quality and value. The fragmented sentiment reflects rapid model iteration, frequent leaderboard shifts, and uncertainty over whether any entrant will pull ahead before the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$10,708End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see near-even odds across multiple firms and "Other" because no single developer holds a decisive lead on image-to-video benchmarks as of mid-September 2026. MiniMax's July H3 release, including post-trained variants topping Artificial Analysis Elo scores around 1200, underpins its 45.5% implied probability, yet Google's Gemini Omni Flash and Veo 3.1 deliver competitive multimodal realism and prompt adherence that keep its odds at 32%. ByteDance Seedance 2.0 excels in multi-reference consistency and longer clips, while Alibaba's Wan models and Kling 3.0 challenge on motion quality and value. The fragmented sentiment reflects rapid model iteration, frequent leaderboard shifts, and uncertainty over whether any entrant will pull ahead before the October resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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