OpenAI’s September 8 launch of ChatGPT Images 2.5, featuring sharper details, up to 50% lower latency, more precise local edits, stronger subject and identity preservation across multi-turn revisions, and new Sketch tools, has propelled its GPT-Image-2.5 variants to the top of major image-editing leaderboards such as Artificial Analysis. This recent capability leap underpins the market’s 96% implied probability for OpenAI by September 30 resolution. Traders see limited near-term risk of displacement given the timing, though a surprise leaderboard surge from Google’s Nano Banana family, Microsoft AI’s MAI-Image models, or another lab’s unreleased update before month-end could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 96%
Google 3.2%
Meta <1%
ByteDance <1%
$25,762 Vol.
$25,762 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
96%
3%
Meta
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Tencent
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Microsoft AI
<1%
Reve
<1%
Luma AI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Black Forest Labs
<1%
KlingAI
<1%
Pruna
<1%
StepFun
<1%
OpenAI 96%
Google 3.2%
Meta <1%
ByteDance <1%
$25,762 Vol.
$25,762 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
$11,090 Vol.
96%
$9,046 Vol.
3%
Meta
$532 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$419 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$478 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$568 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft AI
$558 Vol.
<1%
Reve
$439 Vol.
<1%
Luma AI
$354 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$439 Vol.
<1%
Black Forest Labs
$545 Vol.
<1%
KlingAI
$374 Vol.
<1%
Pruna
$530 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$389 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image Edit Leaderboard when the table under "Image Edit Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image Edit Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-edit (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image Edit Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s September 8 launch of ChatGPT Images 2.5, featuring sharper details, up to 50% lower latency, more precise local edits, stronger subject and identity preservation across multi-turn revisions, and new Sketch tools, has propelled its GPT-Image-2.5 variants to the top of major image-editing leaderboards such as Artificial Analysis. This recent capability leap underpins the market’s 96% implied probability for OpenAI by September 30 resolution. Traders see limited near-term risk of displacement given the timing, though a surprise leaderboard surge from Google’s Nano Banana family, Microsoft AI’s MAI-Image models, or another lab’s unreleased update before month-end could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image Edit Leaderboard when the table under "Image Edit Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image Edit Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-edit (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image Edit Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image Edit Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-edit (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image Edit Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 3:56 PM ET
Volume
$25,762End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image Edit Leaderboard when the table under "Image Edit Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image Edit Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-edit (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image Edit Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s September 8 launch of ChatGPT Images 2.5, featuring sharper details, up to 50% lower latency, more precise local edits, stronger subject and identity preservation across multi-turn revisions, and new Sketch tools, has propelled its GPT-Image-2.5 variants to the top of major image-editing leaderboards such as Artificial Analysis. This recent capability leap underpins the market’s 96% implied probability for OpenAI by September 30 resolution. Traders see limited near-term risk of displacement given the timing, though a surprise leaderboard surge from Google’s Nano Banana family, Microsoft AI’s MAI-Image models, or another lab’s unreleased update before month-end could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image Edit Leaderboard when the table under "Image Edit Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image Edit Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-edit (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image Edit Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image Edit Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-edit (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image Edit Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$25,762End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s September 8 launch of ChatGPT Images 2.5, featuring sharper details, up to 50% lower latency, more precise local edits, stronger subject and identity preservation across multi-turn revisions, and new Sketch tools, has propelled its GPT-Image-2.5 variants to the top of major image-editing leaderboards such as Artificial Analysis. This recent capability leap underpins the market’s 96% implied probability for OpenAI by September 30 resolution. Traders see limited near-term risk of displacement given the timing, though a surprise leaderboard surge from Google’s Nano Banana family, Microsoft AI’s MAI-Image models, or another lab’s unreleased update before month-end could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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