Anthropic's recent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has solidified its lead in trader sentiment for the strongest large language model by end-October, with the model claiming top spots on Artificial Analysis indices for intelligence and agentic performance while excelling on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench variants and Arena leaderboards. This positions the company ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and Google's Gemini 3.x series, which trail in head-to-head evaluations for complex reasoning and developer tasks despite competitive pricing and multimodal strengths. Market-implied odds reflect sustained momentum from these capability gains, though rapid iteration by rivals and potential new releases could introduce volatility before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 85%
Google 7.3%
SpaceXAI 5.7%
OpenAI 5.4%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
85%
7%
SpaceXAI
6%
OpenAI
5%
Meituan
2%
Microsoft
2%
Mistral
2%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Thinky
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Amazon
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Anthropic 85%
Google 7.3%
SpaceXAI 5.7%
OpenAI 5.4%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$4,023 Vol.
85%
$175 Vol.
7%
SpaceXAI
$289 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$180 Vol.
5%
Meituan
$195 Vol.
2%
Microsoft
$160 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$174 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$237 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$174 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$175 Vol.
1%
Meta
$157 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$197 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$154 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$207 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$187 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$174 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$187 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$187 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$187 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$187 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$185 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has solidified its lead in trader sentiment for the strongest large language model by end-October, with the model claiming top spots on Artificial Analysis indices for intelligence and agentic performance while excelling on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench variants and Arena leaderboards. This positions the company ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and Google's Gemini 3.x series, which trail in head-to-head evaluations for complex reasoning and developer tasks despite competitive pricing and multimodal strengths. Market-implied odds reflect sustained momentum from these capability gains, though rapid iteration by rivals and potential new releases could introduce volatility before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$7,790End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has solidified its lead in trader sentiment for the strongest large language model by end-October, with the model claiming top spots on Artificial Analysis indices for intelligence and agentic performance while excelling on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench variants and Arena leaderboards. This positions the company ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and Google's Gemini 3.x series, which trail in head-to-head evaluations for complex reasoning and developer tasks despite competitive pricing and multimodal strengths. Market-implied odds reflect sustained momentum from these capability gains, though rapid iteration by rivals and potential new releases could introduce volatility before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$7,790End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent release of Claude Opus 5 on July 24 has solidified its lead in trader sentiment for the strongest large language model by end-October, with the model claiming top spots on Artificial Analysis indices for intelligence and agentic performance while excelling on coding benchmarks like SWE-bench variants and Arena leaderboards. This positions the company ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and Google's Gemini 3.x series, which trail in head-to-head evaluations for complex reasoning and developer tasks despite competitive pricing and multimodal strengths. Market-implied odds reflect sustained momentum from these capability gains, though rapid iteration by rivals and potential new releases could introduce volatility before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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