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Climate & Science·Climate

When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?

icon for When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
Climate & Science·Climate

When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?

August 13 to August 16, 2026 21%

August 22 to August 26, 2026 8%

August 17 to August 21, 2026 4%

August 27 to August 31, 2026 0

Polymarket
NEW

August 13 to August 16, 2026 21%

August 22 to August 26, 2026 8%

August 17 to August 21, 2026 4%

August 27 to August 31, 2026 0

Polymarket
NEW

August 13 to August 16, 2026

$85 Vol.

28%

August 17 to August 21, 2026

$82 Vol.

4%

August 22 to August 26, 2026

$57 Vol.

8%

August 27 to August 31, 2026

$97 Vol.

43%

No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026

$70 Vol.

50%

This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity, driven by persistent El Niño conditions that elevate wind shear and suppress organization, explains the tight market split between no August hurricane (47.5%) and late-month formation (45.5%). Only three tropical storms have developed through mid-August, with the most recent (Cristobal) remaining weak; official NHC and NOAA guidance plus CSU model consensus continue to project below-average totals of 2–6 hurricanes for the full season. Historical climatology shows the first hurricane often arrives by early August, yet current steering patterns and cooler sea-surface temperatures in the main development region favor delayed or absent intensification through the end of the month. Updated model runs and the next NHC two-week outlook remain the key near-term catalysts.

This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".

A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.

The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Volume
$391
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity, driven by persistent El Niño conditions that elevate wind shear and suppress organization, explains the tight market split between no August hurricane (47.5%) and late-month formation (45.5%). Only three tropical storms have developed through mid-August, with the most recent (Cristobal) remaining weak; official NHC and NOAA guidance plus CSU model consensus continue to project below-average totals of 2–6 hurricanes for the full season. Historical climatology shows the first hurricane often arrives by early August, yet current steering patterns and cooler sea-surface temperatures in the main development region favor delayed or absent intensification through the end of the month. Updated model runs and the next NHC two-week outlook remain the key near-term catalysts.

This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".

A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.

The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Volume
$391
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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Frequently Asked Questions

"When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" at 50%, followed by "August 27 to August 31, 2026" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?" is "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "August 27 to August 31, 2026" at 44%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.