Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean with an R+10 partisan voting index, anchored in its rural and agricultural character across central areas including Yakima and the Tri-Cities. The retirement of longtime incumbent Dan Newhouse created an open seat that advanced Republican Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky through the August 2026 top-two primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s historical voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure. These factors underpin the trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. A major national political shift, candidate-specific controversy, or unusually low Republican turnout could narrow margins, though structural advantages make such reversals unlikely before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWA-04 House Election Winner
WA-04 House Election Winner
$41,334 Vol.
$41,334 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
8%
$41,334 Vol.
$41,334 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$20,390 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$20,944 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean with an R+10 partisan voting index, anchored in its rural and agricultural character across central areas including Yakima and the Tri-Cities. The retirement of longtime incumbent Dan Newhouse created an open seat that advanced Republican Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky through the August 2026 top-two primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s historical voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure. These factors underpin the trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. A major national political shift, candidate-specific controversy, or unusually low Republican turnout could narrow margins, though structural advantages make such reversals unlikely before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$41,334End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean with an R+10 partisan voting index, anchored in its rural and agricultural character across central areas including Yakima and the Tri-Cities. The retirement of longtime incumbent Dan Newhouse created an open seat that advanced Republican Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky through the August 2026 top-two primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s historical voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure. These factors underpin the trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. A major national political shift, candidate-specific controversy, or unusually low Republican turnout could narrow margins, though structural advantages make such reversals unlikely before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,334End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean with an R+10 partisan voting index, anchored in its rural and agricultural character across central areas including Yakima and the Tri-Cities. The retirement of longtime incumbent Dan Newhouse created an open seat that advanced Republican Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky through the August 2026 top-two primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s historical voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure. These factors underpin the trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. A major national political shift, candidate-specific controversy, or unusually low Republican turnout could narrow margins, though structural advantages make such reversals unlikely before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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