Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen holds a commanding lead in Washington's 2nd congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters including Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ. Larsen's long tenure since 2001 and the district's consistent Democratic tilt—evidenced by Kamala Harris carrying it by 8.5 points in 2024—underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic Party price. The August 4, 2026 top-two primary confirmed Larsen and Republican Edwin H. Feller as general election opponents for November 3. While the outcome remains subject to late developments such as turnout shifts among key voting blocs or unexpected national swings, the absence of competitive polling or district-specific challenges supports the wide implied probability gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWA-02 House Election Winner
WA-02 House Election Winner
$16,475 Vol.
$16,475 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$16,475 Vol.
$16,475 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,155 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$5,321 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen holds a commanding lead in Washington's 2nd congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters including Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ. Larsen's long tenure since 2001 and the district's consistent Democratic tilt—evidenced by Kamala Harris carrying it by 8.5 points in 2024—underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic Party price. The August 4, 2026 top-two primary confirmed Larsen and Republican Edwin H. Feller as general election opponents for November 3. While the outcome remains subject to late developments such as turnout shifts among key voting blocs or unexpected national swings, the absence of competitive polling or district-specific challenges supports the wide implied probability gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$16,475End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen holds a commanding lead in Washington's 2nd congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters including Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ. Larsen's long tenure since 2001 and the district's consistent Democratic tilt—evidenced by Kamala Harris carrying it by 8.5 points in 2024—underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic Party price. The August 4, 2026 top-two primary confirmed Larsen and Republican Edwin H. Feller as general election opponents for November 3. While the outcome remains subject to late developments such as turnout shifts among key voting blocs or unexpected national swings, the absence of competitive polling or district-specific challenges supports the wide implied probability gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$16,475End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen holds a commanding lead in Washington's 2nd congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters including Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ. Larsen's long tenure since 2001 and the district's consistent Democratic tilt—evidenced by Kamala Harris carrying it by 8.5 points in 2024—underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic Party price. The August 4, 2026 top-two primary confirmed Larsen and Republican Edwin H. Feller as general election opponents for November 3. While the outcome remains subject to late developments such as turnout shifts among key voting blocs or unexpected national swings, the absence of competitive polling or district-specific challenges supports the wide implied probability gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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