Vermont’s at-large congressional district has favored Democrats consistently since 1990, with no Republican victory since 1988, shaping trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Representative Becca Balint, seeking a third term after winning reelection by over 30 points in 2024, secured her party’s nomination in the August 11 primary and holds double-digit leads in recent University of New Hampshire surveys. Limited Republican primary competition and modest fundraising for the GOP nominee further reinforce the gap. The implied probability could narrow if Balint faces an unforeseen health issue, major scandal, or late national wave altering turnout among independent and suburban voters, though such shifts remain uncommon in this solidly Democratic seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVT-AL House Election Winner
VT-AL House Election Winner
$24,763 Vol.
$24,763 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$24,763 Vol.
$24,763 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,650 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$16,114 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Vermont’s at-large congressional district has favored Democrats consistently since 1990, with no Republican victory since 1988, shaping trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Representative Becca Balint, seeking a third term after winning reelection by over 30 points in 2024, secured her party’s nomination in the August 11 primary and holds double-digit leads in recent University of New Hampshire surveys. Limited Republican primary competition and modest fundraising for the GOP nominee further reinforce the gap. The implied probability could narrow if Balint faces an unforeseen health issue, major scandal, or late national wave altering turnout among independent and suburban voters, though such shifts remain uncommon in this solidly Democratic seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$24,763End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Vermont’s at-large congressional district has favored Democrats consistently since 1990, with no Republican victory since 1988, shaping trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Representative Becca Balint, seeking a third term after winning reelection by over 30 points in 2024, secured her party’s nomination in the August 11 primary and holds double-digit leads in recent University of New Hampshire surveys. Limited Republican primary competition and modest fundraising for the GOP nominee further reinforce the gap. The implied probability could narrow if Balint faces an unforeseen health issue, major scandal, or late national wave altering turnout among independent and suburban voters, though such shifts remain uncommon in this solidly Democratic seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,763End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Vermont’s at-large congressional district has favored Democrats consistently since 1990, with no Republican victory since 1988, shaping trader consensus around the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Representative Becca Balint, seeking a third term after winning reelection by over 30 points in 2024, secured her party’s nomination in the August 11 primary and holds double-digit leads in recent University of New Hampshire surveys. Limited Republican primary competition and modest fundraising for the GOP nominee further reinforce the gap. The implied probability could narrow if Balint faces an unforeseen health issue, major scandal, or late national wave altering turnout among independent and suburban voters, though such shifts remain uncommon in this solidly Democratic seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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