US-Turkey defense ties center on resolving Ankara's possession of Russian S-400 systems, which triggered Turkey's 2019 removal from the F-35 program and CAATSA sanctions. President Trump's July 2026 meetings with President Erdogan signaled administration interest in lifting sanctions and considering program reentry, including possible workarounds like declaring the S-400 inoperable or transferring it abroad. The State Department has reiterated to Congress that legal requirements remain unmet absent full resolution of the S-400 issue. Congressional opposition, including from members concerned about NATO ally dynamics and security risks, creates additional procedural hurdles. Ongoing diplomatic talks and any executive or legislative steps before year-end represent the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$28,842 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
11%
June 30, 2027
36%
$28,842 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$28,357 Vol.
11%
June 30, 2027
$485 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US-Turkey defense ties center on resolving Ankara's possession of Russian S-400 systems, which triggered Turkey's 2019 removal from the F-35 program and CAATSA sanctions. President Trump's July 2026 meetings with President Erdogan signaled administration interest in lifting sanctions and considering program reentry, including possible workarounds like declaring the S-400 inoperable or transferring it abroad. The State Department has reiterated to Congress that legal requirements remain unmet absent full resolution of the S-400 issue. Congressional opposition, including from members concerned about NATO ally dynamics and security risks, creates additional procedural hurdles. Ongoing diplomatic talks and any executive or legislative steps before year-end represent the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$28,842End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.US-Turkey defense ties center on resolving Ankara's possession of Russian S-400 systems, which triggered Turkey's 2019 removal from the F-35 program and CAATSA sanctions. President Trump's July 2026 meetings with President Erdogan signaled administration interest in lifting sanctions and considering program reentry, including possible workarounds like declaring the S-400 inoperable or transferring it abroad. The State Department has reiterated to Congress that legal requirements remain unmet absent full resolution of the S-400 issue. Congressional opposition, including from members concerned about NATO ally dynamics and security risks, creates additional procedural hurdles. Ongoing diplomatic talks and any executive or legislative steps before year-end represent the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$28,842End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Turkey defense ties center on resolving Ankara's possession of Russian S-400 systems, which triggered Turkey's 2019 removal from the F-35 program and CAATSA sanctions. President Trump's July 2026 meetings with President Erdogan signaled administration interest in lifting sanctions and considering program reentry, including possible workarounds like declaring the S-400 inoperable or transferring it abroad. The State Department has reiterated to Congress that legal requirements remain unmet absent full resolution of the S-400 issue. Congressional opposition, including from members concerned about NATO ally dynamics and security risks, creates additional procedural hurdles. Ongoing diplomatic talks and any executive or legislative steps before year-end represent the key near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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