President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a 10-member legal commission to prepare proposals for a civilian constitution has sustained limited AKP discussion, including roughly 20 commission meetings and optimistic June 2026 statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş about possible adoption in 2026–2027. However, the process has produced no parliamentary draft package, referendum call, or cross-party consensus by mid-2026, leaving the effort in early preparation. Amending the 1982 constitution requires at least a three-fifths parliamentary majority to advance and typically a referendum for major changes, thresholds the AKP has not yet secured amid competing priorities and opposition resistance. Traders therefore assign an 82.5% probability that no decisive constitutional move occurs in 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated18% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
18% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a 10-member legal commission to prepare proposals for a civilian constitution has sustained limited AKP discussion, including roughly 20 commission meetings and optimistic June 2026 statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş about possible adoption in 2026–2027. However, the process has produced no parliamentary draft package, referendum call, or cross-party consensus by mid-2026, leaving the effort in early preparation. Amending the 1982 constitution requires at least a three-fifths parliamentary majority to advance and typically a referendum for major changes, thresholds the AKP has not yet secured amid competing priorities and opposition resistance. Traders therefore assign an 82.5% probability that no decisive constitutional move occurs in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$6,165End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a 10-member legal commission to prepare proposals for a civilian constitution has sustained limited AKP discussion, including roughly 20 commission meetings and optimistic June 2026 statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş about possible adoption in 2026–2027. However, the process has produced no parliamentary draft package, referendum call, or cross-party consensus by mid-2026, leaving the effort in early preparation. Amending the 1982 constitution requires at least a three-fifths parliamentary majority to advance and typically a referendum for major changes, thresholds the AKP has not yet secured amid competing priorities and opposition resistance. Traders therefore assign an 82.5% probability that no decisive constitutional move occurs in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,165End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a 10-member legal commission to prepare proposals for a civilian constitution has sustained limited AKP discussion, including roughly 20 commission meetings and optimistic June 2026 statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş about possible adoption in 2026–2027. However, the process has produced no parliamentary draft package, referendum call, or cross-party consensus by mid-2026, leaving the effort in early preparation. Amending the 1982 constitution requires at least a three-fifths parliamentary majority to advance and typically a referendum for major changes, thresholds the AKP has not yet secured amid competing priorities and opposition resistance. Traders therefore assign an 82.5% probability that no decisive constitutional move occurs in 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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