Redistricting by Tennessee’s Republican-led legislature in May 2026 transformed the 9th district from a Democratic stronghold centered on Memphis into a seat stretching toward Nashville suburbs that favored Donald Trump by 21 points, shifting its partisan voting index to R+9 and prompting longtime incumbent Steve Cohen to forgo reelection. The resulting open-seat contest now favors the Republican nominee, state Sen. Brent Taylor, who won his August 6 primary. Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson secured his party’s nomination the same day, yet nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican. These structural changes, combined with the district’s new voter composition, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% Republican probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-09 House Election Winner
TN-09 House Election Winner
$33,175 Vol.
$33,175 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
16%
$33,175 Vol.
$33,175 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$19,961 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$13,214 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting by Tennessee’s Republican-led legislature in May 2026 transformed the 9th district from a Democratic stronghold centered on Memphis into a seat stretching toward Nashville suburbs that favored Donald Trump by 21 points, shifting its partisan voting index to R+9 and prompting longtime incumbent Steve Cohen to forgo reelection. The resulting open-seat contest now favors the Republican nominee, state Sen. Brent Taylor, who won his August 6 primary. Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson secured his party’s nomination the same day, yet nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican. These structural changes, combined with the district’s new voter composition, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% Republican probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$33,175End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting by Tennessee’s Republican-led legislature in May 2026 transformed the 9th district from a Democratic stronghold centered on Memphis into a seat stretching toward Nashville suburbs that favored Donald Trump by 21 points, shifting its partisan voting index to R+9 and prompting longtime incumbent Steve Cohen to forgo reelection. The resulting open-seat contest now favors the Republican nominee, state Sen. Brent Taylor, who won his August 6 primary. Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson secured his party’s nomination the same day, yet nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican. These structural changes, combined with the district’s new voter composition, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% Republican probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,175End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting by Tennessee’s Republican-led legislature in May 2026 transformed the 9th district from a Democratic stronghold centered on Memphis into a seat stretching toward Nashville suburbs that favored Donald Trump by 21 points, shifting its partisan voting index to R+9 and prompting longtime incumbent Steve Cohen to forgo reelection. The resulting open-seat contest now favors the Republican nominee, state Sen. Brent Taylor, who won his August 6 primary. Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson secured his party’s nomination the same day, yet nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican. These structural changes, combined with the district’s new voter composition, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% Republican probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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