Incumbent Republican Scott DesJarlais secured his party's nomination in the August 6, 2026 primary for Tennessee's 4th congressional district and faces Democrat Victoria Broderick in the November general election. The district, which includes Murfreesboro and surrounding Middle Tennessee counties, maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in DesJarlais's prior 70% victory margin and the seat's partisan voting index. Recent redistricting adjustments have not altered its core electoral dynamics. Traders price the Republican outcome at 92.5% due to the incumbent's established support base, limited Democratic infrastructure in the area, and absence of major recent developments that would shift voter coalitions or turnout patterns. Potential challengers to this positioning would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawals, significant polling swings, or external national factors altering local voter preferences before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-04 House Election Winner
TN-04 House Election Winner
$38,027 Vol.
$38,027 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
$38,027 Vol.
$38,027 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$19,445 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$18,581 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Scott DesJarlais secured his party's nomination in the August 6, 2026 primary for Tennessee's 4th congressional district and faces Democrat Victoria Broderick in the November general election. The district, which includes Murfreesboro and surrounding Middle Tennessee counties, maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in DesJarlais's prior 70% victory margin and the seat's partisan voting index. Recent redistricting adjustments have not altered its core electoral dynamics. Traders price the Republican outcome at 92.5% due to the incumbent's established support base, limited Democratic infrastructure in the area, and absence of major recent developments that would shift voter coalitions or turnout patterns. Potential challengers to this positioning would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawals, significant polling swings, or external national factors altering local voter preferences before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$38,027End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Scott DesJarlais secured his party's nomination in the August 6, 2026 primary for Tennessee's 4th congressional district and faces Democrat Victoria Broderick in the November general election. The district, which includes Murfreesboro and surrounding Middle Tennessee counties, maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in DesJarlais's prior 70% victory margin and the seat's partisan voting index. Recent redistricting adjustments have not altered its core electoral dynamics. Traders price the Republican outcome at 92.5% due to the incumbent's established support base, limited Democratic infrastructure in the area, and absence of major recent developments that would shift voter coalitions or turnout patterns. Potential challengers to this positioning would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawals, significant polling swings, or external national factors altering local voter preferences before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,027End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Scott DesJarlais secured his party's nomination in the August 6, 2026 primary for Tennessee's 4th congressional district and faces Democrat Victoria Broderick in the November general election. The district, which includes Murfreesboro and surrounding Middle Tennessee counties, maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in DesJarlais's prior 70% victory margin and the seat's partisan voting index. Recent redistricting adjustments have not altered its core electoral dynamics. Traders price the Republican outcome at 92.5% due to the incumbent's established support base, limited Democratic infrastructure in the area, and absence of major recent developments that would shift voter coalitions or turnout patterns. Potential challengers to this positioning would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawals, significant polling swings, or external national factors altering local voter preferences before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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