Incumbent Republican Tim Burchett secured the nomination in the August 6 primary for Tennessee's 2nd congressional district and faces Democratic nominee Michaela Barnett plus independents in the November 3 general election. The Knoxville-area seat carries an R+17 Partisan Voter Index and has been rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters, reflecting consistent voter preferences in recent cycles. Traders price Republican victory at 93.5 percent due to the district's structural lean, Burchett's incumbency, and the absence of competitive opposition or major recent developments that would shift the balance. A significant scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-02 House Election Winner
TN-02 House Election Winner
$29,043 Vol.
$29,043 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$29,043 Vol.
$29,043 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$19,335 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$9,708 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tim Burchett secured the nomination in the August 6 primary for Tennessee's 2nd congressional district and faces Democratic nominee Michaela Barnett plus independents in the November 3 general election. The Knoxville-area seat carries an R+17 Partisan Voter Index and has been rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters, reflecting consistent voter preferences in recent cycles. Traders price Republican victory at 93.5 percent due to the district's structural lean, Burchett's incumbency, and the absence of competitive opposition or major recent developments that would shift the balance. A significant scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$29,043End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tim Burchett secured the nomination in the August 6 primary for Tennessee's 2nd congressional district and faces Democratic nominee Michaela Barnett plus independents in the November 3 general election. The Knoxville-area seat carries an R+17 Partisan Voter Index and has been rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters, reflecting consistent voter preferences in recent cycles. Traders price Republican victory at 93.5 percent due to the district's structural lean, Burchett's incumbency, and the absence of competitive opposition or major recent developments that would shift the balance. A significant scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,043End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tim Burchett secured the nomination in the August 6 primary for Tennessee's 2nd congressional district and faces Democratic nominee Michaela Barnett plus independents in the November 3 general election. The Knoxville-area seat carries an R+17 Partisan Voter Index and has been rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters, reflecting consistent voter preferences in recent cycles. Traders price Republican victory at 93.5 percent due to the district's structural lean, Burchett's incumbency, and the absence of competitive opposition or major recent developments that would shift the balance. A significant scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the margin, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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