**Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-shattering domestic launch and sustained momentum through mid-August have positioned sub-$900 million as the market favorite for its total gross by August 31.** The film opened to a franchise-best $360 million domestic, posted the third-biggest second weekend ever at $145 million, and became the fastest movie to $700 million domestically, reaching roughly $704 million by August 13–14 with legs around 2.0x after 13 days. This pace reflects exceptional audience demand, strong critical and fan reception, and a summer release window with limited direct competition, allowing it to hold screens effectively into its third weekend (projected $57–72 million). However, reaching $900 million by month-end would require adding roughly $196 million over the final 17–18 days—an aggressive but historically plausible trajectory for top MCU titles like *No Way Home*. Traders appear to view the current run rate and typical post-second-weekend drop patterns as more consistent with an $850–880 million finish by August 31, leaving only about 36% implied probability for crossing $900 million. Upcoming chart updates and weekend holds will serve as key swing factors in refining these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
<900m 64%
900 - 920m 25%
920 - 940m 5.5%
940 - 960m 2.2%
$28,133 Vol.
$28,133 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
64%
900 - 920m
25%
920 - 940m
6%
940 - 960m
2%
960 - 980m
1%
980 - 1000m
<1%
1000 - 1020m
<1%
1020 - 1040m
1%
1040 - 1060m
<1%
1060 - 1080m
<1%
1080m+
1%
<900m 64%
900 - 920m 25%
920 - 940m 5.5%
940 - 960m 2.2%
$28,133 Vol.
$28,133 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
$7,692 Vol.
64%
900 - 920m
$6,895 Vol.
25%
920 - 940m
$1,855 Vol.
6%
940 - 960m
$4,634 Vol.
2%
960 - 980m
$794 Vol.
1%
980 - 1000m
$1,124 Vol.
<1%
1000 - 1020m
$608 Vol.
<1%
1020 - 1040m
$630 Vol.
1%
1040 - 1060m
$688 Vol.
<1%
1060 - 1080m
$717 Vol.
<1%
1080m+
$2,495 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-shattering domestic launch and sustained momentum through mid-August have positioned sub-$900 million as the market favorite for its total gross by August 31.** The film opened to a franchise-best $360 million domestic, posted the third-biggest second weekend ever at $145 million, and became the fastest movie to $700 million domestically, reaching roughly $704 million by August 13–14 with legs around 2.0x after 13 days.
This pace reflects exceptional audience demand, strong critical and fan reception, and a summer release window with limited direct competition, allowing it to hold screens effectively into its third weekend (projected $57–72 million). However, reaching $900 million by month-end would require adding roughly $196 million over the final 17–18 days—an aggressive but historically plausible trajectory for top MCU titles like *No Way Home*. Traders appear to view the current run rate and typical post-second-weekend drop patterns as more consistent with an $850–880 million finish by August 31, leaving only about 36% implied probability for crossing $900 million. Upcoming chart updates and weekend holds will serve as key swing factors in refining these odds.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$28,133End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-shattering domestic launch and sustained momentum through mid-August have positioned sub-$900 million as the market favorite for its total gross by August 31.** The film opened to a franchise-best $360 million domestic, posted the third-biggest second weekend ever at $145 million, and became the fastest movie to $700 million domestically, reaching roughly $704 million by August 13–14 with legs around 2.0x after 13 days.
This pace reflects exceptional audience demand, strong critical and fan reception, and a summer release window with limited direct competition, allowing it to hold screens effectively into its third weekend (projected $57–72 million). However, reaching $900 million by month-end would require adding roughly $196 million over the final 17–18 days—an aggressive but historically plausible trajectory for top MCU titles like *No Way Home*. Traders appear to view the current run rate and typical post-second-weekend drop patterns as more consistent with an $850–880 million finish by August 31, leaving only about 36% implied probability for crossing $900 million. Upcoming chart updates and weekend holds will serve as key swing factors in refining these odds.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$28,133End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-shattering domestic launch and sustained momentum through mid-August have positioned sub-$900 million as the market favorite for its total gross by August 31.** The film opened to a franchise-best $360 million domestic, posted the third-biggest second weekend ever at $145 million, and became the fastest movie to $700 million domestically, reaching roughly $704 million by August 13–14 with legs around 2.0x after 13 days. This pace reflects exceptional audience demand, strong critical and fan reception, and a summer release window with limited direct competition, allowing it to hold screens effectively into its third weekend (projected $57–72 million). However, reaching $900 million by month-end would require adding roughly $196 million over the final 17–18 days—an aggressive but historically plausible trajectory for top MCU titles like *No Way Home*. Traders appear to view the current run rate and typical post-second-weekend drop patterns as more consistent with an $850–880 million finish by August 31, leaving only about 36% implied probability for crossing $900 million. Upcoming chart updates and weekend holds will serve as key swing factors in refining these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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