**The market's overwhelming 97% implied probability on a sub-$9 million seventh weekend for "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" reflects the film's established late-run decline pattern after its record $360 million domestic opening and sustained strong performance through Labor Day.** Having already amassed roughly $929 million domestically by mid-September following a sixth weekend of $18.2 million, the Tom Holland–Zendaya tentpole is following the typical trajectory for even the biggest blockbusters, where percentage drops accelerate as audiences exhaust initial interest and competition shifts. Its earlier holds were impressive—dropping just 19% from the fifth to sixth frame—but the momentum has clearly slowed. An upset above $9 million would require an unusually resilient hold, potentially driven by exceptional word-of-mouth, a major promotional push, or lighter competition, though historical precedent for comparable releases makes such a rebound unlikely at this stage. Traders are pricing in the predictable late-summer fade for a film that has already delivered extraordinary theatrical legs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 7th Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 7th Weekend Box Office
<9m 98.0%
9-10m 1.3%
10-11m 1.1%
11-12m <1%
$36,221 Vol.
$36,221 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
<9m
98%
9-10m
1%
10-11m
1%
11-12m
1%
12m+
<1%
<9m 98.0%
9-10m 1.3%
10-11m 1.1%
11-12m <1%
$36,221 Vol.
$36,221 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
<9m
$19,252 Vol.
98%
9-10m
$8,384 Vol.
1%
10-11m
$6,693 Vol.
1%
11-12m
$1,410 Vol.
1%
12m+
$482 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 7th Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 7th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (September 11 - 13) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**The market's overwhelming 97% implied probability on a sub-$9 million seventh weekend for "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" reflects the film's established late-run decline pattern after its record $360 million domestic opening and sustained strong performance through Labor Day.**
Having already amassed roughly $929 million domestically by mid-September following a sixth weekend of $18.2 million, the Tom Holland–Zendaya tentpole is following the typical trajectory for even the biggest blockbusters, where percentage drops accelerate as audiences exhaust initial interest and competition shifts. Its earlier holds were impressive—dropping just 19% from the fifth to sixth frame—but the momentum has clearly slowed.
An upset above $9 million would require an unusually resilient hold, potentially driven by exceptional word-of-mouth, a major promotional push, or lighter competition, though historical precedent for comparable releases makes such a rebound unlikely at this stage. Traders are pricing in the predictable late-summer fade for a film that has already delivered extraordinary theatrical legs.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 7th Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 7th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (September 11 - 13) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 10:20 AM ET
Volume
$36,221End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 10:20 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 7th Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 7th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (September 11 - 13) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**The market's overwhelming 97% implied probability on a sub-$9 million seventh weekend for "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" reflects the film's established late-run decline pattern after its record $360 million domestic opening and sustained strong performance through Labor Day.**
Having already amassed roughly $929 million domestically by mid-September following a sixth weekend of $18.2 million, the Tom Holland–Zendaya tentpole is following the typical trajectory for even the biggest blockbusters, where percentage drops accelerate as audiences exhaust initial interest and competition shifts. Its earlier holds were impressive—dropping just 19% from the fifth to sixth frame—but the momentum has clearly slowed.
An upset above $9 million would require an unusually resilient hold, potentially driven by exceptional word-of-mouth, a major promotional push, or lighter competition, though historical precedent for comparable releases makes such a rebound unlikely at this stage. Traders are pricing in the predictable late-summer fade for a film that has already delivered extraordinary theatrical legs.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 7th Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 7th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (September 11 - 13) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$36,221End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 10:20 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The market's overwhelming 97% implied probability on a sub-$9 million seventh weekend for "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" reflects the film's established late-run decline pattern after its record $360 million domestic opening and sustained strong performance through Labor Day.** Having already amassed roughly $929 million domestically by mid-September following a sixth weekend of $18.2 million, the Tom Holland–Zendaya tentpole is following the typical trajectory for even the biggest blockbusters, where percentage drops accelerate as audiences exhaust initial interest and competition shifts. Its earlier holds were impressive—dropping just 19% from the fifth to sixth frame—but the momentum has clearly slowed. An upset above $9 million would require an unusually resilient hold, potentially driven by exceptional word-of-mouth, a major promotional push, or lighter competition, though historical precedent for comparable releases makes such a rebound unlikely at this stage. Traders are pricing in the predictable late-summer fade for a film that has already delivered extraordinary theatrical legs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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