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icon for Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?

icon for Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?

NEW
Sep 13, 2026
Polymarket

$135 Vol.

Polymarket

September 13

$0 Vol.

55%

September 15

$0 Vol.

55%

September 17

$0 Vol.

55%

September 19

$0 Vol.

96%

September 21

$135 Vol.

97%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to a record $360 million domestically in late July 2026, the biggest debut ever, and has maintained exceptional legs with consistent weekly hauls above $18 million into early September. Its domestic total now stands near $923 million against Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ long-standing $936 million benchmark, placing it within striking distance after just over five weeks. Strong critical reception, broad audience appeal for Tom Holland and Zendaya, premium format premiums, and minimal direct competition have fueled sustained attendance. The film’s $2.41 billion worldwide haul already surpassed Force Awakens globally months ago, but domestic momentum and daily updates through September remain the key swing factors for traders tracking any potential overtake.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
Volume
$135
End Date
Sep 21, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to a record $360 million domestically in late July 2026, the biggest debut ever, and has maintained exceptional legs with consistent weekly hauls above $18 million into early September. Its domestic total now stands near $923 million against Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ long-standing $936 million benchmark, placing it within striking distance after just over five weeks. Strong critical reception, broad audience appeal for Tom Holland and Zendaya, premium format premiums, and minimal direct competition have fueled sustained attendance. The film’s $2.41 billion worldwide haul already surpassed Force Awakens globally months ago, but domestic momentum and daily updates through September remain the key swing factors for traders tracking any potential overtake.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"'s domestic box office gross of $936,662,225 by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
Volume
$135
End Date
Sep 21, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:40 PM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "September 21" at 97%, followed by "September 19" at 96%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?" is "September 21" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 19" at 96%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.