Spider-Man: Brand New Day's third-weekend prospects are anchored by its record $360 million opening and robust $145 million sophomore frame, which have already propelled domestic totals past $655 million. Industry tracking points to a typical 50-60% decline for a summer tentpole, landing in the $57-72 million range amid positive critical reception and strong audience engagement that have sustained its lead at the box office. Traders see little room for a major surprise given historical patterns for MCU entries and the absence of catalysts that could flatten the drop. An upset above $72 million would require exceptional word-of-mouth retention or weaker-than-expected competition, scenarios viewed as low-probability based on current momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office
<72m 98.2%
72-79m 1.6%
86-93m <1%
79-86m <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
<72m
98%
72-79m
2%
79-86m
<1%
86-93m
1%
93m+
<1%
<72m 98.2%
72-79m 1.6%
86-93m <1%
79-86m <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
<72m
$4,305 Vol.
98%
72-79m
$877 Vol.
2%
79-86m
$814 Vol.
<1%
86-93m
$751 Vol.
1%
93m+
$610 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day's third-weekend prospects are anchored by its record $360 million opening and robust $145 million sophomore frame, which have already propelled domestic totals past $655 million. Industry tracking points to a typical 50-60% decline for a summer tentpole, landing in the $57-72 million range amid positive critical reception and strong audience engagement that have sustained its lead at the box office. Traders see little room for a major surprise given historical patterns for MCU entries and the absence of catalysts that could flatten the drop. An upset above $72 million would require exceptional word-of-mouth retention or weaker-than-expected competition, scenarios viewed as low-probability based on current momentum.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$7,357End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day's third-weekend prospects are anchored by its record $360 million opening and robust $145 million sophomore frame, which have already propelled domestic totals past $655 million. Industry tracking points to a typical 50-60% decline for a summer tentpole, landing in the $57-72 million range amid positive critical reception and strong audience engagement that have sustained its lead at the box office. Traders see little room for a major surprise given historical patterns for MCU entries and the absence of catalysts that could flatten the drop. An upset above $72 million would require exceptional word-of-mouth retention or weaker-than-expected competition, scenarios viewed as low-probability based on current momentum.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$7,357End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day's third-weekend prospects are anchored by its record $360 million opening and robust $145 million sophomore frame, which have already propelled domestic totals past $655 million. Industry tracking points to a typical 50-60% decline for a summer tentpole, landing in the $57-72 million range amid positive critical reception and strong audience engagement that have sustained its lead at the box office. Traders see little room for a major surprise given historical patterns for MCU entries and the absence of catalysts that could flatten the drop. An upset above $72 million would require exceptional word-of-mouth retention or weaker-than-expected competition, scenarios viewed as low-probability based on current momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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