The first U.S. detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in a Texas calf on June 3, 2026, followed by additional livestock cases in Texas and New Mexico, has driven trader focus on whether federal authorities will escalate to a national emergency declaration. USDA-APHIS and CDC data show roughly 45 confirmed animal cases through early August, with active surveillance, sterile male fly releases, and wound treatment protocols in place to exploit the parasite’s single-mating biology. Historical eradication via the sterile insect technique succeeded previously, yet northward spread from Mexico’s Tamaulipas region and ongoing detections raise questions about containment thresholds. Key upcoming releases include weekly APHIS case dashboards and any expanded FDA emergency use authorizations or CDC advisories that could signal broader federal mobilization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedScrewworm National Emergency declared by...?
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
NEW
Jan 1, 2027
August 30
41%
October 31
37%
December 31
47%
$1,442 Vol.
August 30
$61 Vol.
41%
October 31
$0 Vol.
37%
December 31
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The first U.S. detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in a Texas calf on June 3, 2026, followed by additional livestock cases in Texas and New Mexico, has driven trader focus on whether federal authorities will escalate to a national emergency declaration. USDA-APHIS and CDC data show roughly 45 confirmed animal cases through early August, with active surveillance, sterile male fly releases, and wound treatment protocols in place to exploit the parasite’s single-mating biology. Historical eradication via the sterile insect technique succeeded previously, yet northward spread from Mexico’s Tamaulipas region and ongoing detections raise questions about containment thresholds. Key upcoming releases include weekly APHIS case dashboards and any expanded FDA emergency use authorizations or CDC advisories that could signal broader federal mobilization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Volume
$1,442End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The first U.S. detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in a Texas calf on June 3, 2026, followed by additional livestock cases in Texas and New Mexico, has driven trader focus on whether federal authorities will escalate to a national emergency declaration. USDA-APHIS and CDC data show roughly 45 confirmed animal cases through early August, with active surveillance, sterile male fly releases, and wound treatment protocols in place to exploit the parasite’s single-mating biology. Historical eradication via the sterile insect technique succeeded previously, yet northward spread from Mexico’s Tamaulipas region and ongoing detections raise questions about containment thresholds. Key upcoming releases include weekly APHIS case dashboards and any expanded FDA emergency use authorizations or CDC advisories that could signal broader federal mobilization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,442End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first U.S. detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in a Texas calf on June 3, 2026, followed by additional livestock cases in Texas and New Mexico, has driven trader focus on whether federal authorities will escalate to a national emergency declaration. USDA-APHIS and CDC data show roughly 45 confirmed animal cases through early August, with active surveillance, sterile male fly releases, and wound treatment protocols in place to exploit the parasite’s single-mating biology. Historical eradication via the sterile insect technique succeeded previously, yet northward spread from Mexico’s Tamaulipas region and ongoing detections raise questions about containment thresholds. Key upcoming releases include weekly APHIS case dashboards and any expanded FDA emergency use authorizations or CDC advisories that could signal broader federal mobilization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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