Jorginho Mello, the incumbent PL governor of Santa Catarina seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus driven by consistent first-round polling leads of 52-57% in mid-2026 surveys from firms including Neokemp, IPC, and others, often sufficient to avoid a runoff on October 4. His 2022 victory margin exceeding 70% established a strong base, reinforced by the PL state convention in early August formalizing his ticket with vice-governor candidate Adriano Silva and alignment with federal PL figures. Opposition candidates such as João Rodrigues and Gelson Merísio trail substantially in estimates, limiting immediate threats. Late shifts could arise from turnout swings among key voter blocs, coalition realignments ahead of the first round, or unforeseen campaign developments, though current indicators show limited scope for reversal before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJorginho Mello 95%
Marcelo Brigadeiro 3.5%
João Rodrigues 1.7%
Marcos Vieira <1%
$109,247 Vol.
$109,247 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jorginho Mello
95%
Marcelo Brigadeiro
4%
João Rodrigues
2%
Marcos Vieira
<1%
Adriano Silva
<1%
Gelson Merisio
<1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Jorginho Mello 95%
Marcelo Brigadeiro 3.5%
João Rodrigues 1.7%
Marcos Vieira <1%
$109,247 Vol.
$109,247 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jorginho Mello
$24,871 Vol.
95%
Marcelo Brigadeiro
$14,867 Vol.
4%
João Rodrigues
$1,903 Vol.
2%
Marcos Vieira
$1,225 Vol.
<1%
Adriano Silva
$1,024 Vol.
<1%
Gelson Merisio
$1,299 Vol.
<1%
Décio Lima
$62,873 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$1,185 Vol.
<1%
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jorginho Mello, the incumbent PL governor of Santa Catarina seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus driven by consistent first-round polling leads of 52-57% in mid-2026 surveys from firms including Neokemp, IPC, and others, often sufficient to avoid a runoff on October 4. His 2022 victory margin exceeding 70% established a strong base, reinforced by the PL state convention in early August formalizing his ticket with vice-governor candidate Adriano Silva and alignment with federal PL figures. Opposition candidates such as João Rodrigues and Gelson Merísio trail substantially in estimates, limiting immediate threats. Late shifts could arise from turnout swings among key voter blocs, coalition realignments ahead of the first round, or unforeseen campaign developments, though current indicators show limited scope for reversal before election day.
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$109,247End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jorginho Mello, the incumbent PL governor of Santa Catarina seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus driven by consistent first-round polling leads of 52-57% in mid-2026 surveys from firms including Neokemp, IPC, and others, often sufficient to avoid a runoff on October 4. His 2022 victory margin exceeding 70% established a strong base, reinforced by the PL state convention in early August formalizing his ticket with vice-governor candidate Adriano Silva and alignment with federal PL figures. Opposition candidates such as João Rodrigues and Gelson Merísio trail substantially in estimates, limiting immediate threats. Late shifts could arise from turnout swings among key voter blocs, coalition realignments ahead of the first round, or unforeseen campaign developments, though current indicators show limited scope for reversal before election day.
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$109,247End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jorginho Mello, the incumbent PL governor of Santa Catarina seeking reelection, holds overwhelming trader consensus driven by consistent first-round polling leads of 52-57% in mid-2026 surveys from firms including Neokemp, IPC, and others, often sufficient to avoid a runoff on October 4. His 2022 victory margin exceeding 70% established a strong base, reinforced by the PL state convention in early August formalizing his ticket with vice-governor candidate Adriano Silva and alignment with federal PL figures. Opposition candidates such as João Rodrigues and Gelson Merísio trail substantially in estimates, limiting immediate threats. Late shifts could arise from turnout swings among key voter blocs, coalition realignments ahead of the first round, or unforeseen campaign developments, though current indicators show limited scope for reversal before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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