Brazil's Senate has never approved the impeachment of an STF justice despite dozens of formal requests filed in recent years, reflecting high procedural thresholds under Law 1.079/1950 and consistent institutional resistance from Senate leadership. Current Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance such proceedings, while STF rulings in late 2025 further narrowed standing and quorum requirements. This track record underpins the 96.2% trader consensus that no removal will occur before 2027. The 2026 elections, which renew two-thirds of Senate seats, represent the primary variable that could alter the balance, though any resulting majority would still confront constitutional confirmation standards, potential court challenges, and the absence of historical precedent for successful removal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$83,546 Vol.
$83,546 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has never approved the impeachment of an STF justice despite dozens of formal requests filed in recent years, reflecting high procedural thresholds under Law 1.079/1950 and consistent institutional resistance from Senate leadership. Current Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance such proceedings, while STF rulings in late 2025 further narrowed standing and quorum requirements. This track record underpins the 96.2% trader consensus that no removal will occur before 2027. The 2026 elections, which renew two-thirds of Senate seats, represent the primary variable that could alter the balance, though any resulting majority would still confront constitutional confirmation standards, potential court challenges, and the absence of historical precedent for successful removal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$83,546End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate has never approved the impeachment of an STF justice despite dozens of formal requests filed in recent years, reflecting high procedural thresholds under Law 1.079/1950 and consistent institutional resistance from Senate leadership. Current Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance such proceedings, while STF rulings in late 2025 further narrowed standing and quorum requirements. This track record underpins the 96.2% trader consensus that no removal will occur before 2027. The 2026 elections, which renew two-thirds of Senate seats, represent the primary variable that could alter the balance, though any resulting majority would still confront constitutional confirmation standards, potential court challenges, and the absence of historical precedent for successful removal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,546End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil's Senate has never approved the impeachment of an STF justice despite dozens of formal requests filed in recent years, reflecting high procedural thresholds under Law 1.079/1950 and consistent institutional resistance from Senate leadership. Current Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has declined to advance such proceedings, while STF rulings in late 2025 further narrowed standing and quorum requirements. This track record underpins the 96.2% trader consensus that no removal will occur before 2027. The 2026 elections, which renew two-thirds of Senate seats, represent the primary variable that could alter the balance, though any resulting majority would still confront constitutional confirmation standards, potential court challenges, and the absence of historical precedent for successful removal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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