OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and pursuit of a $1 trillion-plus valuation amid rapid revenue expansion to a roughly $24 billion annualized run rate represent the central drivers behind current market-implied odds. Traders weigh the company’s last private valuation near $852 billion against persistent losses, intense competition from Anthropic and Google, and execution risks in scaling frontier models. The 34.5% probability assigned to a 1.5T+ closing market cap reflects optimism over AI sector multiples and enterprise adoption, while the combined 55% odds for the 750B–1.5T range and 9.5% chance of no IPO by end-2027 highlight uncertainty around timing, profitability trajectory, and potential dilution. Key upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 details and broader equity market conditions through late 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5T+ 34.6%
1.25T–1.5T 23%
1T–1.25T 21.1%
750B–1T 12%
$87,658 Vol.
$87,658 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
1%
500–750B
3%
750B–1T
12%
1T–1.25T
21%
1.25T–1.5T
23%
1.5T+
35%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
10%
1.5T+ 34.6%
1.25T–1.5T 23%
1T–1.25T 21.1%
750B–1T 12%
$87,658 Vol.
$87,658 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$6,134 Vol.
1%
500–750B
$8,207 Vol.
3%
750B–1T
$8,975 Vol.
12%
1T–1.25T
$13,974 Vol.
21%
1.25T–1.5T
$8,531 Vol.
23%
1.5T+
$22,606 Vol.
35%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$19,231 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and pursuit of a $1 trillion-plus valuation amid rapid revenue expansion to a roughly $24 billion annualized run rate represent the central drivers behind current market-implied odds. Traders weigh the company’s last private valuation near $852 billion against persistent losses, intense competition from Anthropic and Google, and execution risks in scaling frontier models. The 34.5% probability assigned to a 1.5T+ closing market cap reflects optimism over AI sector multiples and enterprise adoption, while the combined 55% odds for the 750B–1.5T range and 9.5% chance of no IPO by end-2027 highlight uncertainty around timing, profitability trajectory, and potential dilution. Key upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 details and broader equity market conditions through late 2026.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$87,658End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and pursuit of a $1 trillion-plus valuation amid rapid revenue expansion to a roughly $24 billion annualized run rate represent the central drivers behind current market-implied odds. Traders weigh the company’s last private valuation near $852 billion against persistent losses, intense competition from Anthropic and Google, and execution risks in scaling frontier models. The 34.5% probability assigned to a 1.5T+ closing market cap reflects optimism over AI sector multiples and enterprise adoption, while the combined 55% odds for the 750B–1.5T range and 9.5% chance of no IPO by end-2027 highlight uncertainty around timing, profitability trajectory, and potential dilution. Key upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 details and broader equity market conditions through late 2026.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$87,658End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing in June 2026 and pursuit of a $1 trillion-plus valuation amid rapid revenue expansion to a roughly $24 billion annualized run rate represent the central drivers behind current market-implied odds. Traders weigh the company’s last private valuation near $852 billion against persistent losses, intense competition from Anthropic and Google, and execution risks in scaling frontier models. The 34.5% probability assigned to a 1.5T+ closing market cap reflects optimism over AI sector multiples and enterprise adoption, while the combined 55% odds for the 750B–1.5T range and 9.5% chance of no IPO by end-2027 highlight uncertainty around timing, profitability trajectory, and potential dilution. Key upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 details and broader equity market conditions through late 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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