Rebeca Grynspan leads trader consensus in the race to succeed António Guterres, whose second term concludes December 31, 2026, after topping the Security Council’s first straw poll on July 30 with ten “encourage” votes. Her position stems from broad Latin American backing, extensive UNCTAD leadership, and perceived continuity with the current administration, positioning her as the strongest candidate to secure the required nine affirmative votes without a veto. Rafael Grossi follows as the main alternative, drawing support from his IAEA role and mediation record on nuclear and Ukraine issues, though trailing in the same poll. Lower probabilities for Macky Sall and Michelle Bachelet reflect narrower regional endorsements and fewer encourage votes to date. The process remains subject to further straw polls and permanent-member consultations through the fall.