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World·Germany

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

icon for Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
World·Germany

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

No Next Chancellor before 2028 46%

Hendrik Wüst 26%

Markus Söder 16%

Boris Pistorius 9%

Polymarket

$34,758 Vol.

No Next Chancellor before 2028 46%

Hendrik Wüst 26%

Markus Söder 16%

Boris Pistorius 9%

Polymarket

$34,758 Vol.

icon for No Next Chancellor before 2028

No Next Chancellor before 2028

$27,194 Vol.

46%

icon for Hendrik Wüst

Hendrik Wüst

$1,902 Vol.

26%

icon for Markus Söder

Markus Söder

$2,407 Vol.

16%

icon for Boris Pistorius

Boris Pistorius

$683 Vol.

9%

icon for Alice Weidel

Alice Weidel

$429 Vol.

4%

icon for Felix Banaszak

Felix Banaszak

$448 Vol.

3%

icon for Heidi Reichinnek

Heidi Reichinnek

$238 Vol.

3%

icon for Sahra Wagenknecht

Sahra Wagenknecht

$228 Vol.

3%

icon for Carsten Linnemann

Carsten Linnemann

$236 Vol.

1%

icon for Tino Chrupalla

Tino Chrupalla

$228 Vol.

1%

icon for Katharina Dröge

Katharina Dröge

$263 Vol.

1%

icon for Lars Klingbeil

Lars Klingbeil

$264 Vol.

1%

icon for Jens Spahn

Jens Spahn

$238 Vol.

1%

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent state election defeats for the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Berlin have fueled speculation of a mid-term Kanzlertausch to replace Chancellor Friedrich Merz amid his low approval ratings and AfD gains, yet no formal challenge has emerged and state premiers have publicly backed him. This uncertainty keeps the market tight, with trader consensus assigning the highest implied probability to Hendrik Wüst as a moderate CDU successor given his North Rhine-Westphalia premiership and broad party appeal, followed by Markus Söder. Boris Pistorius leads SPD names, while lower odds for Alice Weidel and others reflect structural barriers to opposition or fringe candidates assuming the role before 2028. The coalition's stability and Merz's reform push further support near-even pricing on no change.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$34,758
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent state election defeats for the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Berlin have fueled speculation of a mid-term Kanzlertausch to replace Chancellor Friedrich Merz amid his low approval ratings and AfD gains, yet no formal challenge has emerged and state premiers have publicly backed him. This uncertainty keeps the market tight, with trader consensus assigning the highest implied probability to Hendrik Wüst as a moderate CDU successor given his North Rhine-Westphalia premiership and broad party appeal, followed by Markus Söder. Boris Pistorius leads SPD names, while lower odds for Alice Weidel and others reflect structural barriers to opposition or fringe candidates assuming the role before 2028. The coalition's stability and Merz's reform push further support near-even pricing on no change.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$34,758
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Next Chancellor before 2028" at 46%, followed by "Hendrik Wüst" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" has generated $34.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 15, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" is "No Next Chancellor before 2028" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Hendrik Wüst" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.