The Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, produced a confirmed total of 158 seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus, matching the market's dominant 158–162 outcome. Under Berlin's mixed-member proportional system, the chamber starts at a statutory minimum of 130 members across 78 constituencies but expands through overhang mandates from direct constituency wins and compensatory leveling seats to maintain proportionality. Recent vote shares, with the Linke securing the most direct mandates alongside a 25.7% second-vote share, generated 28 additional seats—nearly identical to the 159-seat total after the 2023 repeat election. High turnout at 74.2% and the distribution among established parties reinforced this expansion without pushing totals into adjacent brackets. Official final certification or an unexpected recount altering a handful of overhang calculations remain the only realistic paths to a different seat count before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated158–162 99.9%
<143 <1%
143–147 <1%
148–152 <1%
$28,952 Vol.
$28,952 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<143
<1%
143–147
<1%
148–152
<1%
153–157
<1%
158–162
100%
163+
<1%
158–162 99.9%
<143 <1%
143–147 <1%
148–152 <1%
$28,952 Vol.
$28,952 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<143
$4,364 Vol.
<1%
143–147
$2,466 Vol.
<1%
148–152
$1,363 Vol.
<1%
153–157
$1,860 Vol.
<1%
158–162
$4,161 Vol.
100%
163+
$14,738 Vol.
<1%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, produced a confirmed total of 158 seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus, matching the market's dominant 158–162 outcome. Under Berlin's mixed-member proportional system, the chamber starts at a statutory minimum of 130 members across 78 constituencies but expands through overhang mandates from direct constituency wins and compensatory leveling seats to maintain proportionality. Recent vote shares, with the Linke securing the most direct mandates alongside a 25.7% second-vote share, generated 28 additional seats—nearly identical to the 159-seat total after the 2023 repeat election. High turnout at 74.2% and the distribution among established parties reinforced this expansion without pushing totals into adjacent brackets. Official final certification or an unexpected recount altering a handful of overhang calculations remain the only realistic paths to a different seat count before market resolution.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$28,952End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, produced a confirmed total of 158 seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus, matching the market's dominant 158–162 outcome. Under Berlin's mixed-member proportional system, the chamber starts at a statutory minimum of 130 members across 78 constituencies but expands through overhang mandates from direct constituency wins and compensatory leveling seats to maintain proportionality. Recent vote shares, with the Linke securing the most direct mandates alongside a 25.7% second-vote share, generated 28 additional seats—nearly identical to the 159-seat total after the 2023 repeat election. High turnout at 74.2% and the distribution among established parties reinforced this expansion without pushing totals into adjacent brackets. Official final certification or an unexpected recount altering a handful of overhang calculations remain the only realistic paths to a different seat count before market resolution.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,952End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, produced a confirmed total of 158 seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus, matching the market's dominant 158–162 outcome. Under Berlin's mixed-member proportional system, the chamber starts at a statutory minimum of 130 members across 78 constituencies but expands through overhang mandates from direct constituency wins and compensatory leveling seats to maintain proportionality. Recent vote shares, with the Linke securing the most direct mandates alongside a 25.7% second-vote share, generated 28 additional seats—nearly identical to the 159-seat total after the 2023 repeat election. High turnout at 74.2% and the distribution among established parties reinforced this expansion without pushing totals into adjacent brackets. Official final certification or an unexpected recount altering a handful of overhang calculations remain the only realistic paths to a different seat count before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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